TableChase Clubs

Scorpions SC PRE- ll

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · Scorpions SC (all teams)

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2nd
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 10–3
WWlast 2
89% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
-1.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM

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Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1.00 PPG

Randall's Island, Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.8 against · 1.73 expected points)

Season so farScorpions SC PRE- llManhattan SC Pre- White
Position2nd7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-01-2-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game5.01.6
Goals against / game1.51.4
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W WD W L L D
Biggest win5–0 at Connecticut FC United Pre II3–0 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
Worst loss—3–4 vs SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.20+0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.00-0.90

Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll — we 5–3; they 3–4.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 20% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:30 PM at Randall's Island.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    SUSA FC Pre- ll sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above SUSA FC Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Manhattan SC Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Scorpions SC PRE- ll – Manhattan SC Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
89% top 4
11% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 13%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 47%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.60) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Scorpions SC PRE- ll to Manhattan SC Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–3 4–3 2–2 0–0 5–0 0–7 3–2 2–1 5–2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2nd SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 8th Connecticut FC Unit… 9th Select Pre- White 4th East Coast Surf SC … 5th Manhattan SC Pre- W… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
10:30 AM
no score posted		 Select Pre- White
4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.17 2.39 Upside
Sat Oct 24
02:30 PM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Randall's Island		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 2.23 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Holy Trinity high school		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–2 1.68 2.12 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 3–1 2.33 2.15 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:30 AM		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1		 Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–2 1.96 2.12 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Home
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.79 2.21 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 6–1 2.90 2.28 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33		 Home
Medway High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 2–4 0.70 2.13 Upside
Sun Nov 22
03:00 PM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Home
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–3 1.11 2.03 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Select Pre- White
4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 1.94 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–2 2.12 1.95 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–2 2.27 1.97 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
09:30 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.79 1.90 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 2–4 0.45 1.80 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 1.82 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–2 2.01 1.83 Swing game
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.56 1.87 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:00 AM		 Connecticut FC United Pre II
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 5–1 2.64 1.91 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 6–1 2.80 1.95 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.65 1.98 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 385+33 153.00 WWWWW -1.67 +0.08 100% 1.2
2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2200 103+7 63.00 WW -1.00 -0.02 89% 3.5
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5410 275+22 132.60 WWWDW -1.67 +0.24 98% 2.5
4 Select Pre- White 5320 193+16 112.20 WWDWD -1.08 +0.11 96% 3.0
5 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.87 +0.12 13% 5.4
6 FSA FC Pre- ll 5203 719-12 61.20 LWWLL +1.35 -0.25 0% 8.4
7 Manhattan SC Pre- White 5122 87+1 51.00 DLLWD -0.90 +0.23 2% 7.0
8 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8215 1828-10 70.88 LWLLD +0.82 -0.35 0% 7.8
9 Connecticut FC United Pre II 5113 925-16 40.80 WLLDL +1.66 -0.30 0% 9.0
10 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5014 424-20 10.20 LLLLD +1.49 -0.20 0% 11.1
11 FC Stars Pre- White 1001 23-1 00.00 L -1.13 +0.08 1% 7.3
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 3003 224-22 00.00 LLL +1.77 +0.03 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.