TableChase Clubs

SUSA FC Pre- ll

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · SUSA FC (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+33 goal diff · 38–5
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2
-1.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Select Pre- White
4th · 2.20 PPG

Legion Field, Field 1B ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.2 against · 1.69 expected points)

Season so farSUSA FC Pre- llSelect Pre- White
Position1st4th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-03-2-0
Points per game3.002.20
Goals for / game7.63.8
Goals against / game1.00.6
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W WD W D W W
Biggest win11–2 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White7–0 vs Connecticut FC United Pre II
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.44+1.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.67-1.08

Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll — we 4–2; they 2–2. AC Connecticut Pre- II — we 9–1; they 6–1. FSA FC Pre- ll — we 7–0; they 4–0. Connecticut FC United Pre II — we 7–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Select Pre- White concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 18% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:45 AM at Legion Field.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Select Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SUSA FC Pre- ll – Select Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.67 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Win
3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.50 PPG		 3rd▼ down 2 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

86% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.2 average finish
  1. 1st 86%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SUSA FC Pre- ll to Select Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 0–7 4–2 2–2 7–0 0–4 9–1 1–6 2–3 4–3 0–0 11–2 0–3 1–1 2–5 SUSA FC Pre- ll 1st Connecticut FC Unit… 9th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 8th FSA FC Pre- ll 6th AC Connecticut Pre-… 10th Oakwood Soccer Club… 12th Manhattan SC Pre- W… 7th Select Pre- White 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM		 Select Pre- White
4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16		 Away far trip
Legion Field		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.69 2.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:20 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Home
The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–2 2.02 2.67 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Holy Trinity high school		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 4–1 2.47 2.65 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:50 AM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Home
The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.63 2.65 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
01:30 PM		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Medway High School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 4–2 2.17 2.60 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1		 Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 5–1 2.66 2.60 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
11:00 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–1 2.97 2.63 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 Select Pre- White
4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–1 2.01 2.59 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
09:30 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 3–2 1.67 2.52 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 6–1 2.86 2.54 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.81 2.56 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–2 2.45 2.55 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Connecticut FC United Pre II
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 6–1 2.87 2.57 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
01:00 PM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.82 2.59 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 2.58 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.67 2.58 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–1 2.93 2.60 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 385+33 153.00 WWWWW -1.67 +0.08 100% 1.2
2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2200 103+7 63.00 WW -1.00 -0.02 90% 3.6
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5410 275+22 132.60 WWWDW -1.67 +0.24 99% 2.5
4 Select Pre- White 5320 193+16 112.20 WWDWD -1.08 +0.11 96% 3.0
5 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.87 +0.12 12% 5.5
6 FSA FC Pre- ll 5203 719-12 61.20 LWWLL +1.35 -0.25 0% 8.3
7 Manhattan SC Pre- White 5122 87+1 51.00 DLLWD -0.90 +0.23 2% 7.0
8 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8215 1828-10 70.88 LWLLD +0.82 -0.35 0% 7.8
9 Connecticut FC United Pre II 5113 925-16 40.80 WLLDL +1.66 -0.30 0% 9.0
10 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5014 424-20 10.20 LLLLD +1.49 -0.20 0% 11.1
11 FC Stars Pre- White 1001 23-1 00.00 L -1.13 +0.08 1% 7.3
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 3003 224-22 00.00 LLL +1.77 +0.03 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.