Connecticut FC United Pre II

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CFC Park, Field 1 A ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.2 against · 2.04 expected points)

Common opponents: Select Pre- White — we 0–7; they 1–6. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II — we 4–4; they 0–5. SUSA FC Pre- ll — we 0–7; they 1–9.

• They struggle to score
  AC Connecticut Pre- II average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 1 of 5.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  AC Connecticut Pre- II concede 4.8/game; worst result 1–9 at SUSA FC Pre- ll.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at Select Pre- White, 0–5 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll, 0–7 at SUSA FC Pre- ll.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 63% / draw 15% / loss 22%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll sit 8th on 0.88 PPG; we are on 0.80.

  A point moves us above SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the AC Connecticut Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Connecticut FC United Pre II – AC Connecticut Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 2%
6. 6th 5%
7. 7th 10%
8. 8th 17%
9. 9th 23%
10. 10th 36%
11. 11th 7%
12. 12th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).