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Sporting California USA

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 37 minutes ago.
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10th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-4 goal diff · 9–13
WLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
+0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Sporting California USA
10th · 0.75 PPG
at
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0.00 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.6 against · 2.12 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USALV Heat Surf
Position10th17th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-30-0-3
Points per game0.750.00
Goals for / game2.30.3
Goals against / game3.33.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L L L WL L L
Biggest win3–2 vs Blues—
Worst loss3–5 at San Diego Surf1–5 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.33-1.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.67+0.77

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 3–5; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf concede 3.7/game; worst result 1–5 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ RL.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 16% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Heritage Park Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LAFC sit 9th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above LAFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.20 PPG		 8th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 3 10th— holds
Win
1.20 PPG		 8th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 3 10th— holds
Draw
0.80 PPG		 9th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 5
Loss
0.60 PPG		 13th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 5 17th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 29%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.67) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.67 (+1.92) 2nd (2.38) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+1.85) 4th (2.15) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 2.60 (+1.85) 3rd (2.23) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf 2.50 (+1.75) 6th (1.94) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Legends FC 2.17 (+1.42) 5th (1.97) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 SLAMMERS FC 1.20 (+0.45) 7th (1.58) Win next game
8 Eagles SC 1.20 (+0.45) 9th (1.15) Win next game
9 LAFC 0.80 (+0.05) 15th (0.74) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–5 3–0 3–2 1–1 Sporting California… 10th Legends FC 6th Blues 15th LV Heat Surf 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 2–1 2.12 1.02 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 Eagles SC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.81 1.15 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.56 1.07 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 SLAMMERS FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 1.04 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +11		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.40 0.97 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Phoenix Rising FC
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.81 1.05 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LAFC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -10		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–1 2.28 1.17 Bank it
Sat May 1
11:00 AM		 LA Breakers
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.91 1.23 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD		 Rebels SC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -7		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.85 1.28 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD		 Legends FC - Del Mar
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -11		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.29 1.35 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 1.27 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-1-2 · GD -3		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.75 1.30 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 170+17 123.00 WWWW -0.23 -0.13 100% 1.3
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 6510 173+14 162.67 WWWWW -0.25 -0.06 94% 2.6
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 143+11 132.60 WWWDW -0.81 +0.22 67% 3.9
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 5410 101+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.24 -0.04 75% 3.5
5 San Diego Surf 6501 159+6 152.50 WWWWW -0.27 +0.05 27% 5.2
6 Legends FC 6411 179+8 132.17 DLWWW -0.16 -0.04 35% 5.0
7 SLAMMERS FC 5203 75+2 61.20 LWWLL +0.41 -0.23 3% 7.2
8 Eagles SC 5203 49-5 61.20 LLWLW -0.04 +0.01 0% 10.3
9 LAFC 5113 111-10 40.80 LDLWL +0.24 -0.05 0% 14.2
10 Sporting California USA 4103 913-4 30.75 WLLL +0.67 -0.23 0% 9.0
11 LA Breakers 4103 212-10 30.75 LLWL +1.08 -0.31 0% 12.6
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6114 611-5 40.67 LWLLL -0.06 +0.05 0% 12.2
13 Rebels SC 4022 29-7 20.50 LDLD +0.10 +0.03 0% 13.9
14 Legends FC - Del Mar 6105 516-11 30.50 LLLLL -0.00 +0.09 0% 15.2
15 Blues 3012 46-2 10.33 LDL +0.38 -0.10 0% 10.2
16 Arizona Arsenal 3012 14-3 10.33 DLL -0.05 +0.02 0% 11.7
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.77 -0.10 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.