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Beach Futbol Club Gold

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+17 goal diff · 17–0
WWWWlast 4
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3
-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM

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Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Legends FC - Del Mar
14th · 0.50 PPG

Miramesa High School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.3 for, 0.5 against · 2.88 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol Club GoldLegends FC - Del Mar
Position1st14th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-01-0-5
Points per game3.000.50
Goals for / game4.30.8
Goals against / game0.02.7
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WL L L L L
Biggest win8–0 at LAFC2–1 vs Rebels SC
Worst loss—1–4 at SLAMMERS FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.29-1.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.23-0.00

Common opponents: SLAMMERS FC — we 1–0; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Legends FC - Del Mar concede 2.7/game; worst result 1–4 at SLAMMERS FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Legends FC - Del Mar have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Miramesa High School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC - Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club Gold – Legends FC - Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.40 PPG
5th▼ down 4 5th▼ down 4 5th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

80% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.3 average finish
  1. 1st 80%
  2. 2nd 14%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

7 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club Gold to Legends FC - Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
0 favour them
+7.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 4–1 0–2 3–0 8–0 0–0 1–2 4–0 3–0 3–1 0–1 5–1 3–0 1–0 Beach Futbol Club G… 1st SLAMMERS FC 7th LAFC 9th Legends FC 6th Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 3rd Rebels SC 13th Eagles SC 8th Phoenix Rising FC 12th Legends FC - Del Mar 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 14th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
Legends FC - Del Mar
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away far trip
Miramesa High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.88 2.98 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Blues
15th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
El Camino College
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.74 2.94 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
03:45 PM
Rebels SC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -7
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.80 2.92 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Eagles SC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
2–0 2.68 2.89 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
San Diego Surf
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +6
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.56 2.85 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.70 2.83 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-1-2 · GD -3
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
2–0 2.61 2.81 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.90 2.82 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.92 2.75 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.93 2.69 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–0 2.16 2.66 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.85 2.67 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 170+17 123.00 WWWW -0.23 -0.13 100% 1.3
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 6510 173+14 162.67 WWWWW -0.25 -0.06 93% 2.6
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 143+11 132.60 WWWDW -0.81 +0.22 67% 3.9
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 5410 101+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.24 -0.04 77% 3.5
5 San Diego Surf 6501 159+6 152.50 WWWWW -0.27 +0.05 25% 5.3
6 Legends FC 6411 179+8 132.17 DLWWW -0.16 -0.04 35% 5.0
7 SLAMMERS FC 5203 75+2 61.20 LWWLL +0.41 -0.23 2% 7.2
8 Eagles SC 5203 49-5 61.20 LLWLW -0.04 +0.01 0% 10.3
9 LAFC 5113 111-10 40.80 LDLWL +0.24 -0.05 0% 14.1
10 Sporting California USA 4103 913-4 30.75 WLLL +0.67 -0.23 0% 9.1
11 LA Breakers 4103 212-10 30.75 LLWL +1.08 -0.31 0% 12.6
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6114 611-5 40.67 LWLLL -0.06 +0.05 0% 12.0
13 Rebels SC 4022 29-7 20.50 LDLD +0.10 +0.03 0% 14.0
14 Legends FC - Del Mar 6105 516-11 30.50 LLLLL -0.00 +0.09 0% 15.3
15 Blues 3012 46-2 10.33 LDL +0.38 -0.10 0% 10.2
16 Arizona Arsenal 3012 14-3 10.33 DLL -0.05 +0.02 0% 11.7
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.77 -0.10 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.