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LV Heat Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)

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17th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-10 goal diff · 1–11
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.0
+0.77 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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LV Heat Surf
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Sporting California USA
10th · 0.75 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.0 against · 0.72 expected points)

Season so farLV Heat SurfSporting California USA
Position17th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-31-0-3
Points per game0.000.75
Goals for / game0.32.3
Goals against / game3.73.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L LL L L W
Biggest win—3–2 vs Blues
Worst loss1–5 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ RL3–5 at San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.44-0.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.77+0.67

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–3; they 3–5.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sporting California USA score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting California USA concede 3.2/game; worst result 3–5 at San Diego Surf.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at SLAMMERS FC, 0–3 vs Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sporting California USA have lost 3 straight (form: WLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Arizona Arsenal sit 16th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
10th▲ up 7 13th▲ up 4 15th▲ up 2
Draw
0.25 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 16%
  16. 16th 20%
  17. 17th 31%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.67) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.67 (+2.67) 2nd (2.38) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+2.60) 4th (2.15) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 2.60 (+2.60) 3rd (2.23) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf 2.50 (+2.50) 6th (1.94) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Legends FC 2.17 (+2.17) 5th (1.97) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 SLAMMERS FC 1.20 (+1.20) 7th (1.58) 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Eagles SC 1.20 (+1.20) 9th (1.15) 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 LAFC 0.80 (+0.80) 15th (0.74) 13 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
10 Sporting California USA 0.75 (+0.75) 8th (1.30) Win next game
11 LA Breakers 0.75 (+0.75) 13th (0.90) Win next game
12 Phoenix Rising FC 0.67 (+0.67) 12th (0.93) A point next game
13 Rebels SC 0.50 (+0.50) 14th (0.74) A point next game
14 Legends FC - Del Mar 0.50 (+0.50) 17th (0.63) A point next game
15 Blues 0.33 (+0.33) 10th (1.14) A point next game
16 Arizona Arsenal 0.33 (+0.33) 11th (0.96) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 5–3 1–1 2–3 LV Heat Surf 17th Legends FC 6th Blues 15th Sporting California… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 13th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.72 0.18 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD
San Diego Surf
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 0.23 Upside
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-1-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Arizona Athletic Grounds
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.83 0.33 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–1 0.80 0.40 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Rebels SC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -7
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.30 0.51 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 0.61 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LA Breakers
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 0.68 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17
Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–4 0.07 0.63 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Blues
15th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.82 0.64 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.18 0.61 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.18 0.58 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Eagles SC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–1 0.83 0.59 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
LAFC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.28 0.64 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 170+17 123.00 WWWW -0.23 -0.13 100% 1.3
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 6510 173+14 162.67 WWWWW -0.25 -0.06 94% 2.6
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 143+11 132.60 WWWDW -0.81 +0.22 67% 3.9
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 5410 101+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.24 -0.04 75% 3.5
5 San Diego Surf 6501 159+6 152.50 WWWWW -0.27 +0.05 27% 5.2
6 Legends FC 6411 179+8 132.17 DLWWW -0.16 -0.04 35% 5.0
7 SLAMMERS FC 5203 75+2 61.20 LWWLL +0.41 -0.23 3% 7.2
8 Eagles SC 5203 49-5 61.20 LLWLW -0.04 +0.01 0% 10.3
9 LAFC 5113 111-10 40.80 LDLWL +0.24 -0.05 0% 14.2
10 Sporting California USA 4103 913-4 30.75 WLLL +0.67 -0.23 0% 9.0
11 LA Breakers 4103 212-10 30.75 LLWL +1.08 -0.31 0% 12.6
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6114 611-5 40.67 LWLLL -0.06 +0.05 0% 12.2
13 Rebels SC 4022 29-7 20.50 LDLD +0.10 +0.03 0% 13.9
14 Legends FC - Del Mar 6105 516-11 30.50 LLLLL -0.00 +0.09 0% 15.2
15 Blues 3012 46-2 10.33 LDL +0.38 -0.10 0% 10.2
16 Arizona Arsenal 3012 14-3 10.33 DLL -0.05 +0.02 0% 11.7
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.77 -0.10 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.