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LA Breakers

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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11th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-10 goal diff · 2–12
LLWLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.6
+1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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LA Breakers
11th · 0.75 PPG
at
LAFC
9th · 0.80 PPG

Alemany High School , Softball 11v11 Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.2 against · 1.44 expected points)

Season so farLA BreakersLAFC
Position11th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-31-1-3
Points per game0.750.80
Goals for / game0.50.2
Goals against / game3.02.2
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)L W L LL W L D L
Biggest win2–1 vs Arizona Arsenal1–0 vs Phoenix Rising FC
Worst loss0–4 at Beach Futbol Club Gold0–8 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.12-1.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.08+0.24

Common opponents: Beach Futbol Club Gold — we 0–4; they 0–8. Pateadores Soccer Club — we 0–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LAFC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 4 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at Beach Futbol Club Gold, 0–3 at Pateadores Soccer Club, 0–4 vs Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 39%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Softball 11v11 Grass" at Alemany High School .

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Alemany High School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Sporting California USA sit 10th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above Sporting California USA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.80 PPG
10th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.20 PPG
9th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 2 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.80 PPG
10th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 4
Loss
0.60 PPG
12th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 3 17th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 12%
  16. 16th 8%
  17. 17th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.67) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.67 (+1.92) 2nd (2.38) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+1.85) 4th (2.15) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 2.60 (+1.85) 3rd (2.23) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf 2.50 (+1.75) 6th (1.94) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Legends FC 2.17 (+1.42) 5th (1.97) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 SLAMMERS FC 1.20 (+0.45) 7th (1.58) Win next game
8 Eagles SC 1.20 (+0.45) 9th (1.15) Win next game
9 LAFC 0.80 (+0.05) 15th (0.74) A point next game
10 Sporting California USA 0.75 (+0.00) 8th (1.30) Already ahead

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–0 0–4 8–0 2–1 0–0 0–1 3–0 1–0 0–4 1–1 6–0 0–0 LA Breakers 11th Pateadores Soccer C… 4th Beach Futbol Club G… 1st Arizona Arsenal 16th Slammers FC HB Koge 2nd Phoenix Rising FC 12th Eagles SC 8th Rebels SC 13th LAFC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.31 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
LAFC
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
Alemany High School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.44 0.89 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:15 PM
SLAMMERS FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +2
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.52 0.83 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
Legends FC
6th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.43 0.77 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 0.84 Upside
Sun Mar 21
01:00 PM
Blues
15th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
Silverlakes
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 0.98 0.86 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 0.91 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Eagles SC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.98 0.92 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -7
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.47 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -5
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 0.98 Upside
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.91 0.98 Upside
Sun May 2
11:00 AM
Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.34 0.94 Upside
Sun May 9
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +6
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.90 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 170+17 123.00 WWWW -0.23 -0.13 100% 1.3
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 6510 173+14 162.67 WWWWW -0.25 -0.06 93% 2.6
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 143+11 132.60 WWWDW -0.81 +0.22 68% 3.9
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 5410 101+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.24 -0.04 78% 3.5
5 San Diego Surf 6501 159+6 152.50 WWWWW -0.27 +0.05 25% 5.3
6 Legends FC 6411 179+8 132.17 DLWWW -0.16 -0.04 34% 5.0
7 SLAMMERS FC 5203 75+2 61.20 LWWLL +0.41 -0.23 3% 7.2
8 Eagles SC 5203 49-5 61.20 LLWLW -0.04 +0.01 0% 10.2
9 LAFC 5113 111-10 40.80 LDLWL +0.24 -0.05 0% 14.3
10 Sporting California USA 4103 913-4 30.75 WLLL +0.67 -0.23 0% 9.1
11 LA Breakers 4103 212-10 30.75 LLWL +1.08 -0.31 0% 12.6
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6114 611-5 40.67 LWLLL -0.06 +0.05 0% 12.1
13 Rebels SC 4022 29-7 20.50 LDLD +0.10 +0.03 0% 14.0
14 Legends FC - Del Mar 6105 516-11 30.50 LLLLL -0.00 +0.09 0% 15.2
15 Blues 3012 46-2 10.33 LDL +0.38 -0.10 0% 10.2
16 Arizona Arsenal 3012 14-3 10.33 DLL -0.05 +0.02 0% 11.6
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.77 -0.10 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.