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Phoenix Rising FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU16 · 17 teams · Phoenix Rising FC (all teams)

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12th
1-1-4 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-5 goal diff · 6–11
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.0
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Phoenix Rising FC
12th · 0.67 PPG
at
Eagles SC
8th · 1.20 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 19 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.3 against · 1.26 expected points)

Season so farPhoenix Rising FCEagles SC
Position12th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-42-0-3
Points per game0.671.20
Goals for / game1.00.8
Goals against / game1.81.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L L L W LW L W L L
Biggest win3–0 at Legends FC - Del Mar3–1 at Legends FC - Del Mar
Worst loss1–5 at Legends FC0–3 at Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.56-0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-0.04

Common opponents: Legends FC - Del Mar — we 3–0; they 3–1. San Diego Surf — we 1–2; they 0–2. LAFC — we 0–1; they 1–0. Legends FC — we 1–5; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Arizona Arsenal, 0–1 at LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 33%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LA Breakers sit 11th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above LA Breakers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Phoenix Rising FC – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.71 PPG		 12th— holds 10th▲ up 2 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.00 PPG		 8th▲ up 4 8th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 1
Draw
0.71 PPG		 12th— holds 10th▲ up 2 15th▼ down 3
Loss
0.57 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.67) 44 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.67 (+2.00) 2nd (2.38) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+1.93) 4th (2.15) 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 2.60 (+1.93) 3rd (2.23) 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 San Diego Surf 2.50 (+1.83) 6th (1.94) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Legends FC 2.17 (+1.50) 5th (1.97) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7 SLAMMERS FC 1.20 (+0.53) 7th (1.58) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Eagles SC 1.20 (+0.53) 9th (1.15) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
9 LAFC 0.80 (+0.13) 15th (0.74) A point next game
10 Sporting California USA 0.75 (+0.08) 8th (1.30) A point next game
11 LA Breakers 0.75 (+0.08) 13th (0.90) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Phoenix Rising FC to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 3–0 1–2 2–0 3–0 1–3 0–1 0–1 0–2 3–0 1–3 3–0 2–1 Phoenix Rising FC 12th Legends FC 6th San Diego Surf 5th Legends FC - Del Mar 14th LAFC 9th Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 3rd Pateadores Soccer C… 4th Eagles SC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Eagles SC
8th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.26 0.75 Upside
Sun Nov 1
08:30 AM		 Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +14		 Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.29 0.69 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Rebels SC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -7		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.75 0.81 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -10		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–1 1.98 0.93 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Blues
15th · 0-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.28 0.96 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Pateadores Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–1 0.54 0.93 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.21 0.87 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 SLAMMERS FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 0–1 0.94 0.88 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Sporting California USA
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 0.99 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM		 LA Breakers
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.56 0.93 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 170+17 123.00 WWWW -0.23 -0.13 100% 1.3
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 6510 173+14 162.67 WWWWW -0.25 -0.06 94% 2.6
3 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 143+11 132.60 WWWDW -0.81 +0.22 67% 3.9
4 Pateadores Soccer Club 5410 101+9 132.60 DWWWW -0.24 -0.04 77% 3.5
5 San Diego Surf 6501 159+6 152.50 WWWWW -0.27 +0.05 26% 5.3
6 Legends FC 6411 179+8 132.17 DLWWW -0.16 -0.04 34% 5.0
7 SLAMMERS FC 5203 75+2 61.20 LWWLL +0.41 -0.23 3% 7.2
8 Eagles SC 5203 49-5 61.20 LLWLW -0.04 +0.01 0% 10.2
9 LAFC 5113 111-10 40.80 LDLWL +0.24 -0.05 0% 14.3
10 Sporting California USA 4103 913-4 30.75 WLLL +0.67 -0.23 0% 9.1
11 LA Breakers 4103 212-10 30.75 LLWL +1.08 -0.31 0% 12.7
12 Phoenix Rising FC 6114 611-5 40.67 LWLLL -0.06 +0.05 0% 12.0
13 Rebels SC 4022 29-7 20.50 LDLD +0.10 +0.03 0% 14.0
14 Legends FC - Del Mar 6105 516-11 30.50 LLLLL -0.00 +0.09 0% 15.2
15 Blues 3012 46-2 10.33 LDL +0.38 -0.10 0% 10.2
16 Arizona Arsenal 3012 14-3 10.33 DLL -0.05 +0.02 0% 11.7
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.77 -0.10 0% 14.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.