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Slammers FC HB Koge

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

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5th
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+9 goal diff · 12–3
LWWWWlast 5
55% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:45 PM

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Slammers FC HB Koge
5th · 2.50 PPG
at
SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 24 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.7 for, 1.2 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so farSlammers FC HB KogeSLAMMERS FC
Position5th2nd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-14-1-0
Points per game2.502.60
Goals for / game2.02.2
Goals against / game0.50.0
Clean sheets55
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W W LD W W W W
Biggest win5–0 vs Sporting California USA5–0 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss0–3 at San Diego Surf—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.88+1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.36-0.16

Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SLAMMERS FC score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    SLAMMERS FC concede only 0.0/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at San Diego Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 20%; a draw (30%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:45 PM at Orange County Great Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club Gold sit 4th on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SLAMMERS FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Slammers FC HB Koge – SLAMMERS FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.14 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
2.57 PPG
2nd▲ up 3 3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2
Draw
2.29 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
55% top 4
46% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 29%
  5. 5th 36%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.54) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+0.10) 3rd (2.38) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+0.00) 4th (2.13) A point next game
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.50 (+0.00) 2nd (2.39) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Slammers FC HB Koge to SLAMMERS FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 even
3 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 2–0 0–1 0–1 2–0 0–4 1–0 0–1 0–3 3–0 0–5 0–0 Slammers FC HB Koge 5th Pateadores Soccer C… 11th Rebels SC 8th LA Breakers 15th San Diego Surf 1st Legends FC - Del Mar 7th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 14th Beach Futbol Club G… 4th SLAMMERS FC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:45 PM
SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Away
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.91 2.27 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 2.24 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
08:30 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
2–0 2.39 2.26 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
TBD
Eagles SC
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.04 2.23 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL
14th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.50 2.26 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Legends FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.46 2.19 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–1 0.96 2.10 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -8
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.51 2.13 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD
Blues
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.46 2.15 Bank it
Sun May 23
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–0 1.78 2.12 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 6600 203+17 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.13 99% 1.8
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 110+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.16 -0.11 91% 2.7
3 Legends FC 6501 144+10 152.50 WLWWW -0.40 +0.04 57% 4.2
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4310 111+10 102.50 WWWD +0.38 -0.31 94% 2.5
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 123+9 152.50 LWWWW -0.36 +0.02 55% 4.2
6 LAFC 5302 1011-1 91.80 LLWWW +0.07 -0.13 1% 7.3
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 6312 64+2 101.67 LLWWD +0.18 -0.25 3% 6.9
8 Rebels SC 4202 43+1 61.50 LWLW -0.06 -0.08 1% 7.7
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6204 1115-4 61.00 WLLLL +0.12 -0.09 0% 10.1
10 Blues 3102 38-5 31.00 WLL +0.63 -0.14 0% 11.1
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 36-3 40.80 LDWLL +0.19 -0.14 0% 11.0
12 Eagles SC 5023 59-4 20.40 LDLLD +0.54 -0.30 0% 10.6
13 LV Heat Surf 3012 08-8 10.33 DLL +0.40 -0.06 0% 14.7
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 111-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.01 +0.02 0% 15.4
15 LA Breakers 3003 07-7 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.15 0% 14.1
16 Arizona Arsenal 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.28 -0.00 0% 14.6
17 Sporting California USA 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL +0.77 -0.23 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.