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Rebels SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+1 goal diff · 4–3
LWLWlast 4
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.8
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM

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Rebels SC
8th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Legends FC
3rd · 2.50 PPG

El Cajon Valley High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.4 against · 0.98 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCLegends FC
Position8th3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-25-0-1
Points per game1.502.50
Goals for / game1.02.3
Goals against / game0.80.7
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W L W LW W W L W
Biggest win2–0 vs LAFC3–0 at LV Heat Surf
Worst loss0–2 at Slammers FC HB Koge1–2 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.13+0.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-0.40

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC score 2.3/game — well above the league's 1.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Legends FC concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Legends FC - Del Mar, 0–2 at Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 23%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Legends FC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC - Del Mar sit 7th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Legends FC - Del Mar on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG
6th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1
Loss
1.20 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 26%
  8. 8th 22%
  9. 9th 15%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.54) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+1.10) 3rd (2.38) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+1.00) 4th (2.13) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.50 (+1.00) 2nd (2.39) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.50 (+1.00) 5th (2.12) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 LAFC 1.80 (+0.30) 7th (1.58) Win next game
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.67 (+0.17) 6th (1.64) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
5 favour them
-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–0 0–3 2–0 0–4 2–1 4–3 0–2 3–1 0–3 0–1 3–0 0–2 5–0 1–2 1–3 0–0 Rebels SC 8th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 14th LAFC 6th Legends FC - Del Mar 7th Slammers FC HB Koge 5th LV Heat Surf 13th Beach Futbol Club G… 4th Eagles SC 12th Phoenix Rising FC 9th Sporting California… 17th Legends FC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
05:45 PM
no score posted
Pateadores Soccer Club
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–0 1.75 1.55 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
12:15 PM
Legends FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +10
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–1 0.98 1.45 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Home
Monte Vista High School · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–0 2.31 1.58 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
10:15 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.67 1.46 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 1.48 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
02:15 PM
Beach Futbol Club Gold
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +10
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–1 0.73 1.40 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -8
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
1–0 2.09 1.46 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Blues
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–0 1.75 1.49 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
LA Breakers
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -7
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.95 1.52 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–1 0.57 1.46 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -10
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.20 1.50 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Eagles SC
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.51 1.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 6600 203+17 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.13 98% 1.8
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 110+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.16 -0.11 92% 2.6
3 Legends FC 6501 144+10 152.50 WLWWW -0.40 +0.04 57% 4.2
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4310 111+10 102.50 WWWD +0.38 -0.31 93% 2.6
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 123+9 152.50 LWWWW -0.36 +0.02 54% 4.2
6 LAFC 5302 1011-1 91.80 LLWWW +0.07 -0.13 2% 7.4
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 6312 64+2 101.67 LLWWD +0.18 -0.25 3% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 43+1 61.50 LWLW -0.06 -0.08 1% 7.8
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6204 1115-4 61.00 WLLLL +0.12 -0.09 0% 10.1
10 Blues 3102 38-5 31.00 WLL +0.63 -0.14 0% 11.1
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 36-3 40.80 LDWLL +0.19 -0.14 0% 11.0
12 Eagles SC 5023 59-4 20.40 LDLLD +0.54 -0.30 0% 10.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3012 08-8 10.33 DLL +0.40 -0.06 0% 14.8
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 111-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.01 +0.02 0% 15.4
15 LA Breakers 3003 07-7 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.15 0% 14.1
16 Arizona Arsenal 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.28 -0.00 0% 14.6
17 Sporting California USA 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL +0.77 -0.23 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.