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Beach Futbol Club Gold

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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4th
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+10 goal diff · 11–1
WWWDlast 4
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
+0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 05:15 PM

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Beach Futbol Club Gold
4th · 2.50 PPG
at
Legends FC - Del Mar
7th · 1.67 PPG

Miramesa High School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 0.6 against · 1.88 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol Club GoldLegends FC - Del Mar
Position4th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-03-1-2
Points per game2.501.67
Goals for / game2.81.0
Goals against / game0.30.7
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)D W W WD W W L L
Biggest win5–0 vs LA Breakers3–0 vs Phoenix Rising FC
Worst loss—0–3 vs San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.46+0.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.38+0.18

Common opponents: SLAMMERS FC — we 0–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Legends FC - Del Mar concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs SLAMMERS FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 53% / draw 29% / loss 18%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:15 PM at Miramesa High School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC sit 3rd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above Legends FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC - Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club Gold – Legends FC - Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.60 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

21% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 21%
  2. 2nd 31%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.54) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+0.10) 3rd (2.38) Win next game
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+0.00) 4th (2.13) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club Gold to Legends FC - Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
0 favour them
+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 1–0 2–1 3–0 0–3 4–0 0–2 0–1 4–0 0–2 2–0 0–0 3–1 4–3 Beach Futbol Club G… 4th SLAMMERS FC 2nd Legends FC 3rd LAFC 6th Phoenix Rising FC 9th Rebels SC 8th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 14th Eagles SC 12th Legends FC - Del Mar 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.31 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
05:15 PM
Legends FC - Del Mar
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Miramesa High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–0 1.88 2.38 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Blues
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.70 2.43 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
02:15 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.02 2.37 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Eagles SC
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.35 2.37 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
San Diego Surf
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17
Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 2.27 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–0 2.50 2.29 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.78 2.33 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -8
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
2–0 2.72 2.37 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +9
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–0 1.77 2.32 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.46 2.33 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL
14th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.80 2.36 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
3–0 2.81 2.39 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 6600 203+17 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.13 98% 1.8
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 110+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.16 -0.11 90% 2.7
3 Legends FC 6501 144+10 152.50 WLWWW -0.40 +0.04 57% 4.2
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4310 111+10 102.50 WWWD +0.38 -0.31 92% 2.6
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 123+9 152.50 LWWWW -0.36 +0.02 57% 4.2
6 LAFC 5302 1011-1 91.80 LLWWW +0.07 -0.13 1% 7.4
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 6312 64+2 101.67 LLWWD +0.18 -0.25 3% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 43+1 61.50 LWLW -0.06 -0.08 1% 7.7
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6204 1115-4 61.00 WLLLL +0.12 -0.09 0% 10.1
10 Blues 3102 38-5 31.00 WLL +0.63 -0.14 0% 11.1
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 36-3 40.80 LDWLL +0.19 -0.14 0% 11.0
12 Eagles SC 5023 59-4 20.40 LDLLD +0.54 -0.30 0% 10.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3012 08-8 10.33 DLL +0.40 -0.06 0% 14.8
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 111-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.01 +0.02 0% 15.4
15 LA Breakers 3003 07-7 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.15 0% 14.1
16 Arizona Arsenal 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.28 -0.00 0% 14.6
17 Sporting California USA 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL +0.77 -0.23 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.