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LV Heat Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 13 minutes ago.
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13th
0-1-2 record · 3 played
0.33 points per game
-8 goal diff · 0–8
DLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.8
+0.40 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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LV Heat Surf
13th · 0.33 PPG
vs
Sporting California USA
17th · 0.00 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.5 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so farLV Heat SurfSporting California USA
Position13th17th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-20-0-4
Points per game0.330.00
Goals for / game0.00.8
Goals against / game2.73.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L L DL L L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–5 at SLAMMERS FC0–5 at Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.25-1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.40+0.77

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–3; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting California USA concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–5 at Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL, 0–5 at SLAMMERS FC, 0–3 vs Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 33%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sporting California USA have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Eagles SC sit 12th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.33.

    A point moves us above Eagles SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.50 PPG		 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 13th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.25 PPG		 14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 15%
  15. 15th 20%
  16. 16th 21%
  17. 17th 22%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.67) 1st (2.54) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+2.27) 3rd (2.38) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+2.17) 4th (2.13) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.50 (+2.17) 2nd (2.39) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.50 (+2.17) 5th (2.12) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 LAFC 1.80 (+1.47) 7th (1.58) 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.67 (+1.34) 6th (1.64) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+1.17) 8th (1.51) 23 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 Phoenix Rising FC 1.00 (+0.67) 9th (1.18) Win next game
10 Blues 1.00 (+0.67) 11th (1.08) Win next game
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.80 (+0.47) 12th (1.07) A point next game
12 Eagles SC 0.40 (+0.07) 10th (1.12) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–1 3–1 2–1 LV Heat Surf 13th Legends FC 3rd Blues 10th Sporting California… 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM		 Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -10		 Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.24 0.56 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 San Diego Surf
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–3 0.14 0.48 Upside
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM		 Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-0-2 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Arizona Athletic Grounds		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.13 0.58 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.59 0.58 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 0–1 0.67 0.60 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Legends FC - Del Mar
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–1 0.62 0.60 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 LA Breakers
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.32 0.67 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +10		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–2 0.19 0.63 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 Blues
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.01 0.66 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Pateadores Soccer Club
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.78 0.67 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Slammers FC HB Koge
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.34 0.64 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Eagles SC
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 0–1 0.65 0.64 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 LAFC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD -1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.45 0.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 6600 203+17 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.13 98% 1.8
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 110+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.16 -0.11 90% 2.7
3 Legends FC 6501 144+10 152.50 WLWWW -0.40 +0.04 57% 4.2
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4310 111+10 102.50 WWWD +0.38 -0.31 92% 2.6
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 123+9 152.50 LWWWW -0.36 +0.02 57% 4.2
6 LAFC 5302 1011-1 91.80 LLWWW +0.07 -0.13 1% 7.4
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 6312 64+2 101.67 LLWWD +0.18 -0.25 3% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 43+1 61.50 LWLW -0.06 -0.08 1% 7.7
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6204 1115-4 61.00 WLLLL +0.12 -0.09 0% 10.1
10 Blues 3102 38-5 31.00 WLL +0.63 -0.14 0% 11.1
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 36-3 40.80 LDWLL +0.19 -0.14 0% 11.0
12 Eagles SC 5023 59-4 20.40 LDLLD +0.54 -0.30 0% 10.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3012 08-8 10.33 DLL +0.40 -0.06 0% 14.8
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 111-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.01 +0.02 0% 15.4
15 LA Breakers 3003 07-7 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.15 0% 14.1
16 Arizona Arsenal 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.28 -0.00 0% 14.6
17 Sporting California USA 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL +0.77 -0.23 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.