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Phoenix Rising FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Phoenix Rising FC (all teams)

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9th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 11–15
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.2
+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 1.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC
12th · 0.40 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 14 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.9 against · 1.22 expected points)

Season so farPhoenix Rising FCEagles SC
Position9th12th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-40-2-3
Points per game1.000.40
Goals for / game1.81.0
Goals against / game2.51.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L L L L WD L L D L
Biggest win6–1 vs Arizona Arsenal—
Worst loss0–3 at Legends FC - Del Mar0–2 at Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.41-0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.12+0.54

Common opponents: Legends FC - Del Mar — we 0–3; they 0–0. San Diego Surf — we 1–4; they 1–2. LAFC — we 1–3; they 3–4. Legends FC — we 0–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Legends FC - Del Mar, 0–3 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Phoenix Rising FC – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.29 PPG
9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
0.86 PPG
10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 22%
  11. 11th 17%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.54) 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+1.60) 3rd (2.38) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+1.50) 4th (2.13) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.50 (+1.50) 2nd (2.39) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.50 (+1.50) 5th (2.12) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 LAFC 1.80 (+0.80) 7th (1.58) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.64) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.51) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Phoenix Rising FC to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 even
5 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–0 1–3 4–3 1–4 2–1 0–3 0–0 3–1 1–1 3–0 3–1 0–2 Phoenix Rising FC 9th Legends FC 3rd LAFC 6th San Diego Surf 1st Legends FC - Del Mar 7th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 14th Pateadores Soccer C… 11th Eagles SC 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Eagles SC
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -4
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.22 1.03 Upside
Sun Nov 1
08:30 AM
Slammers FC HB Koge
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.46 0.96 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD
Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.17 0.98 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -8
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 1.11 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Blues
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.80 1.17 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 1.21 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +10
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.37 1.14 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.38 1.09 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.81 1.14 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
LA Breakers
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -7
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.84 1.18 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 6600 203+17 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.13 98% 1.8
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 110+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.16 -0.11 92% 2.7
3 Legends FC 6501 144+10 152.50 WLWWW -0.40 +0.04 56% 4.2
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4310 111+10 102.50 WWWD +0.38 -0.31 94% 2.5
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 123+9 152.50 LWWWW -0.36 +0.02 54% 4.2
6 LAFC 5302 1011-1 91.80 LLWWW +0.07 -0.13 1% 7.3
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 6312 64+2 101.67 LLWWD +0.18 -0.25 3% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 43+1 61.50 LWLW -0.06 -0.08 1% 7.7
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6204 1115-4 61.00 WLLLL +0.12 -0.09 0% 10.2
10 Blues 3102 38-5 31.00 WLL +0.63 -0.14 0% 11.1
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 36-3 40.80 LDWLL +0.19 -0.14 0% 11.0
12 Eagles SC 5023 59-4 20.40 LDLLD +0.54 -0.30 0% 10.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3012 08-8 10.33 DLL +0.40 -0.06 0% 14.8
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 111-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.01 +0.02 0% 15.4
15 LA Breakers 3003 07-7 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.15 0% 14.1
16 Arizona Arsenal 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.28 -0.00 0% 14.5
17 Sporting California USA 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL +0.77 -0.23 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.