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Eagles SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Eagles SC (all teams)

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12th
0-2-3 record · 5 played
0.40 points per game
-4 goal diff · 5–9
LDLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.5
+0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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Eagles SC
12th · 0.40 PPG
vs
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 1.00 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.7 against · 1.56 expected points)

Season so farEagles SCPhoenix Rising FC
Position12th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-32-0-4
Points per game0.401.00
Goals for / game1.01.8
Goals against / game1.82.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)D L L D LL L L L W
Biggest win—6–1 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss0–2 at Legends FC0–3 at Legends FC - Del Mar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.27-0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.54+0.12

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–2; they 0–3. LAFC — we 3–4; they 1–3. San Diego Surf — we 1–2; they 1–4. Legends FC - Del Mar — we 0–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Phoenix Rising FC concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–3 at Legends FC - Del Mar.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Legends FC, 0–0 at Legends FC - Del Mar.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 22% / loss 34%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Phoenix Rising FC have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Pateadores Soccer Club sit 11th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.40.

    A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Phoenix Rising FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eagles SC – Phoenix Rising FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.50 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Win
0.83 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 2 12th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Loss
0.33 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 22%
  11. 11th 18%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 9%
  14. 14th 5%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.19 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.60) 1st (2.54) 46 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SLAMMERS FC 2.60 (+2.20) 3rd (2.38) 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+2.10) 4th (2.13) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 2.50 (+2.10) 2nd (2.39) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.50 (+2.10) 5th (2.12) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 LAFC 1.80 (+1.40) 7th (1.58) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.67 (+1.27) 6th (1.64) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+1.10) 8th (1.51) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 Phoenix Rising FC 1.00 (+0.60) 9th (1.18) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 Blues 1.00 (+0.60) 11th (1.08) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.80 (+0.40) 12th (1.07) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Eagles SC to Phoenix Rising FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
3 even
0 favour them
+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–4 3–1 0–2 3–0 1–2 4–1 0–0 3–0 0–3 2–0 1–3 1–1 1–3 Eagles SC 12th LAFC 6th Legends FC 3rd San Diego Surf 1st Legends FC - Del Mar 7th Pateadores Soccer C… 11th Utah Royals FC-AZ -… 14th Phoenix Rising FC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.30 · 16th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM		 Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
Pleasant Valley Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.56 0.59 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM		 Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.76 0.76 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
TBD		 Slammers FC HB Koge
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.73 0.76 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 SLAMMERS FC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–1 0.48 0.73 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +10		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.48 0.70 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Arizona Arsenal
16th · 0-0-2 · GD -8		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.90 0.81 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 LA Breakers
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -7		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 1–0 1.99 0.91 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM		 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL
14th · 0-1-4 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Bell Road Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 1–0 1.93 0.99 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -8		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 1–0 2.14 1.07 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD		 Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.20 1.08 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD		 Blues
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.75 1.12 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 6600 203+17 183.00 WWWWW -0.25 -0.13 99% 1.7
2 SLAMMERS FC 5410 110+11 132.60 WWWWD -0.16 -0.11 92% 2.7
3 Legends FC 6501 144+10 152.50 WLWWW -0.40 +0.04 57% 4.2
4 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4310 111+10 102.50 WWWD +0.38 -0.31 94% 2.6
5 Slammers FC HB Koge 6501 123+9 152.50 LWWWW -0.36 +0.02 54% 4.3
6 LAFC 5302 1011-1 91.80 LLWWW +0.07 -0.13 1% 7.3
7 Legends FC - Del Mar 6312 64+2 101.67 LLWWD +0.18 -0.25 3% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 43+1 61.50 LWLW -0.06 -0.08 1% 7.8
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6204 1115-4 61.00 WLLLL +0.12 -0.09 0% 10.1
10 Blues 3102 38-5 31.00 WLL +0.63 -0.14 0% 11.2
11 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 36-3 40.80 LDWLL +0.19 -0.14 0% 11.0
12 Eagles SC 5023 59-4 20.40 LDLLD +0.54 -0.30 0% 10.5
13 LV Heat Surf 3012 08-8 10.33 DLL +0.40 -0.06 0% 14.8
14 Utah Royals FC-AZ -RL 5014 111-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.01 +0.02 0% 15.4
15 LA Breakers 3003 07-7 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.15 0% 14.1
16 Arizona Arsenal 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.28 -0.00 0% 14.6
17 Sporting California USA 4004 313-10 00.00 LLLL +0.77 -0.23 0% 14.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.42 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.