TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+18 goal diff · 19–1
WWDWlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-1.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:45 AM

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San Diego Surf White
3rd · 2.50 PPG
at
LAFC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.1 against · 1.09 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego Surf WhiteLAFC
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)3-1-06-0-0
Points per game2.503.00
Goals for / game4.84.3
Goals against / game0.30.5
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D W WW W W W W
Biggest win9–0 vs LV Heat Surf7–0 at Sporting California USA NAVY
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.17+2.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.14+0.02

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAFC score 4.3/game — well above the league's 2.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    LAFC concede only 0.5/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Legends FC Gold.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    LAFC have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:45 AM at Oak Park High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Pateadores Blue sit 2nd on 2.60 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A win moves us above Pateadores Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf White – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.60 PPG		 1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.20 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 14%
  2. 2nd 74%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.70) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 Pateadores Blue 2.60 (+0.10) 3rd (1.96) Win next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf White to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–5 0–1 5–0 2–1 0–5 0–2 1–3 3–2 9–0 0–5 0–4 2–3 1–6 1–3 1–4 0–0 1–1 San Diego Surf White 3rd Eagles SC 16th CDA Slammers FC Mar… 11th LV Heat Surf 18th Legends FC Gold 8th Rebels SC /09 9th SDSC Surf Blue 13th San Diego Surf Blue 5th CDA Slammers FC Whi… 7th SDSC Surf Gold 15th LAFC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 4th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:45 AM		 LAFC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23		 Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.09 2.22 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Sporting California USA NAVY
4th · 3-0-1 · GD -4		 Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 2.27 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Blue
13th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 3–0 2.72 2.34 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–1 2.63 2.37 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM		 Sporting California USA RED
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–0 2.57 2.39 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
07:00 PM		 Legends FC Black
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–1 2.66 2.42 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
03:30 PM		 Rebels SC /09
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.91 2.37 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Gold
14th · 1-0-3 · GD +0		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 2.40 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.41 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM		 West Coast FC Navy
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–0 2.35 2.40 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +10		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.31 2.40 Bank it
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +5		 Away
Surf Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.09 2.38 Swing game
Sun May 9
09:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Gold
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -3		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.67 2.40 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC 6600 263+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.02 -0.21 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores Blue 5410 188+10 132.60 WWWDW -1.03 +0.34 73% 4.0
3 San Diego Surf White 4310 191+18 102.50 WWDW -1.14 +0.21 99% 2.0
4 Sporting California USA NAVY 4301 711-4 92.25 LWWW +0.63 -0.18 15% 7.8
5 San Diego Surf Blue 5302 116+5 91.80 WWLLW -0.60 +0.25 23% 6.9
6 West Coast FC Navy 4211 74+3 71.75 WDLW -0.31 +0.07 19% 7.2
7 CDA Slammers FC White 4211 1011-1 71.75 DWLW +0.03 +0.02 6% 9.4
8 Legends FC Gold 3120 32+1 51.67 DWD +0.76 -0.16 24% 6.9
9 Rebels SC /09 5212 125+7 71.40 WLDWL -0.29 +0.11 30% 6.3
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4121 1010+0 51.25 WDDL +0.34 -0.10 6% 9.0
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 311-8 61.20 WWLLL +0.51 -0.12 0% 14.2
12 Sporting California USA RED 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW -0.08 +0.03 3% 10.4
13 SDSC Surf Blue 4112 610-4 41.00 LDLW +0.26 -0.04 1% 12.6
14 Pateadores Gold 4103 1010+0 30.75 LLLW -0.88 +0.27 1% 12.6
15 SDSC Surf Gold 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.14 +0.06 0% 12.9
16 Eagles SC 4103 516-11 30.75 LWLL +1.11 -0.23 0% 14.9
17 Legends FC Black 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.26 -0.00 0% 14.8
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 -0.07 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.