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CDA Slammers FC Maroon

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 18 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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11th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-8 goal diff · 3–11
WWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.2
+0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:15 PM

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CDA Slammers FC Maroon
11th · 1.20 PPG
at
Pateadores Gold
14th · 0.75 PPG

Arroyo Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.4 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FC MaroonPateadores Gold
Position11th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-31-0-3
Points per game1.200.75
Goals for / game0.62.5
Goals against / game2.22.5
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L L W WW L L L
Biggest win2–1 at SDSC Surf Blue6–0 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss0–5 vs San Diego Surf White1–4 at Beach Futbol Club Gold
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.94-0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.51-0.88

Common opponents: Sporting California USA RED — we 1–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs San Diego Surf White, 0–3 at West Coast FC Navy, 0–2 vs San Diego Surf Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:15 PM at Arroyo Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club Gold sit 10th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC Maroon – Pateadores Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 3 16th▼ down 5
Win
1.50 PPG		 9th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Draw
1.17 PPG		 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 3 16th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 18%
  16. 16th 18%
  17. 17th 15%
  18. 18th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC 3.00 (+1.80) 1st (2.70) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Pateadores Blue 2.60 (+1.40) 3rd (1.96) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf White 2.50 (+1.30) 2nd (2.40) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Sporting California USA NAVY 2.25 (+1.05) 8th (1.57) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf Blue 1.80 (+0.60) 6th (1.62) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 West Coast FC Navy 1.75 (+0.55) 7th (1.59) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 CDA Slammers FC White 1.75 (+0.55) 10th (1.41) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
8 Legends FC Gold 1.67 (+0.47) 5th (1.64) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Rebels SC /09 1.40 (+0.20) 4th (1.65) A point next game
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.25 (+0.05) 9th (1.42) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC Maroon to Pateadores Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 3–1 0–5 9–0 0–6 0–2 4–0 CDA Slammers FC Mar… 11th Sporting California… 12th San Diego Surf White 3rd San Diego Surf Blue 5th LV Heat Surf 18th Pateadores Gold 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 14th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:15 PM		 Pateadores Gold
14th · 1-0-3 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Arroyo Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.75 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Rebels SC /09
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 0–2 0.62 1.05 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Great Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.40 0.97 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Gold
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Ryan Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.89 0.96 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.97 0.96 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
18th · 0-0-7 · GD -31		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 2.00 1.06 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM		 Legends FC Gold
8th · 1-2-0 · GD +1		 Away
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 0–1 0.66 1.02 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.91 1.02 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Eagles SC
16th · 1-0-3 · GD -11		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.50 1.05 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Legends FC Black
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -5		 Away
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.03 1.05 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 LAFC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.18 0.99 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Sporting California USA NAVY
4th · 3-0-1 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.83 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC 6600 263+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.02 -0.21 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores Blue 5410 188+10 132.60 WWWDW -1.03 +0.34 73% 4.0
3 San Diego Surf White 4310 191+18 102.50 WWDW -1.14 +0.21 99% 2.0
4 Sporting California USA NAVY 4301 711-4 92.25 LWWW +0.63 -0.18 15% 7.8
5 San Diego Surf Blue 5302 116+5 91.80 WWLLW -0.60 +0.25 23% 6.9
6 West Coast FC Navy 4211 74+3 71.75 WDLW -0.31 +0.07 19% 7.2
7 CDA Slammers FC White 4211 1011-1 71.75 DWLW +0.03 +0.02 6% 9.4
8 Legends FC Gold 3120 32+1 51.67 DWD +0.76 -0.16 24% 6.9
9 Rebels SC /09 5212 125+7 71.40 WLDWL -0.29 +0.11 30% 6.3
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4121 1010+0 51.25 WDDL +0.34 -0.10 6% 9.0
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 311-8 61.20 WWLLL +0.51 -0.12 0% 14.2
12 Sporting California USA RED 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW -0.08 +0.03 3% 10.4
13 SDSC Surf Blue 4112 610-4 41.00 LDLW +0.26 -0.04 1% 12.6
14 Pateadores Gold 4103 1010+0 30.75 LLLW -0.88 +0.27 1% 12.6
15 SDSC Surf Gold 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.14 +0.06 0% 12.9
16 Eagles SC 4103 516-11 30.75 LWLL +1.11 -0.23 0% 14.9
17 Legends FC Black 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.26 -0.00 0% 14.8
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 -0.07 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.