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Legends FC Gold

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 18 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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8th
1-2-0 record · 3 played
1.67 points per game
+1 goal diff · 3–2
DWDlast 3
24% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+0.76 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Legends FC Gold
8th · 1.67 PPG
at
San Diego Surf Blue
5th · 1.80 PPG

Surf Sports Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.4 against · 1.19 expected points)

Season so farLegends FC GoldSan Diego Surf Blue
Position8th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-03-0-2
Points per game1.671.80
Goals for / game1.02.2
Goals against / game0.71.2
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D W DW L L W W
Biggest win2–1 at West Coast FC Navy4–0 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss—1–3 at LAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.28+0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.76-0.60

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs San Diego Surf White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Surf Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    CDA Slammers FC White sit 7th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above CDA Slammers FC White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC Gold – San Diego Surf Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.50 PPG		 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG		 5th▲ up 3 5th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 2
Draw
1.50 PPG		 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3
Loss
1.25 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
24% top 4
76% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.76 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LAFC 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.70) 46 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
2 Pateadores Blue 2.60 (+0.93) 3rd (1.96) 40 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf White 2.50 (+0.83) 2nd (2.40) 38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Sporting California USA NAVY 2.25 (+0.58) 8th (1.57) 34 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf Blue 1.80 (+0.13) 6th (1.62) A point next game
6 West Coast FC Navy 1.75 (+0.08) 7th (1.59) A point next game
7 CDA Slammers FC White 1.75 (+0.08) 10th (1.41) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC Gold to San Diego Surf Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 4–2 0–2 2–1 3–0 0–2 0–0 5–0 1–2 0–5 3–1 9–0 0–4 5–1 3–2 Legends FC Gold 8th SDSC Surf Blue 13th West Coast FC Navy 6th San Diego Surf White 3rd Legends FC Black 17th CDA Slammers FC Mar… 11th LAFC 1st LV Heat Surf 18th Eagles SC 16th San Diego Surf Blue 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 15th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Legends FC Black
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.04 1.76 Swing game
Sun Oct 11
01:00 PM
no score posted		 SDSC Surf Gold
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Ryan Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.62 1.73 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.19 1.64 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC White
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 1.66 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Rebels SC /09
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.04 1.58 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Blue
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +10		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.30 1.55 Upside
Sun Nov 22
07:00 PM		 Pateadores Gold
14th · 1-0-3 · GD +0		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–1 1.80 1.58 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.44 1.57 Upside
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -8		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 1–0 2.11 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Sporting California USA NAVY
4th · 3-0-1 · GD -4		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.60 1.61 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM		 LV Heat Surf
18th · 0-0-7 · GD -31		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 3–0 2.70 1.69 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LAFC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.45 1.61 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM		 Sporting California USA RED
12th · 1-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.70 1.61 Swing game
Sun May 9
09:00 AM		 Eagles SC
16th · 1-0-3 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 1.64 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LAFC 6600 263+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.02 -0.21 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores Blue 5410 188+10 132.60 WWWDW -1.03 +0.34 73% 4.0
3 San Diego Surf White 4310 191+18 102.50 WWDW -1.14 +0.21 99% 2.0
4 Sporting California USA NAVY 4301 711-4 92.25 LWWW +0.63 -0.18 15% 7.8
5 San Diego Surf Blue 5302 116+5 91.80 WWLLW -0.60 +0.25 23% 6.9
6 West Coast FC Navy 4211 74+3 71.75 WDLW -0.31 +0.07 19% 7.2
7 CDA Slammers FC White 4211 1011-1 71.75 DWLW +0.03 +0.02 6% 9.4
8 Legends FC Gold 3120 32+1 51.67 DWD +0.76 -0.16 24% 6.9
9 Rebels SC /09 5212 125+7 71.40 WLDWL -0.29 +0.11 30% 6.3
10 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4121 1010+0 51.25 WDDL +0.34 -0.10 6% 9.0
11 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 311-8 61.20 WWLLL +0.51 -0.12 0% 14.2
12 Sporting California USA RED 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW -0.08 +0.03 3% 10.4
13 SDSC Surf Blue 4112 610-4 41.00 LDLW +0.26 -0.04 1% 12.6
14 Pateadores Gold 4103 1010+0 30.75 LLLW -0.88 +0.27 1% 12.6
15 SDSC Surf Gold 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.14 +0.06 0% 12.9
16 Eagles SC 4103 516-11 30.75 LWLL +1.11 -0.23 0% 14.9
17 Legends FC Black 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.26 -0.00 0% 14.8
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 -0.07 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.