San Diego Surf Blue
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU18/19 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.1 against · 1.55 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf Blue | Legends FC Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 1-2-0 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W W | D W D |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs LV Heat Surf | 2–1 at West Coast FC Navy |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at LAFC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.47 | +0.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.60 | +0.76 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Legends FC Gold average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 1 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Hard to break down
Legends FC Gold concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 27% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf Blue – Legends FC Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 3 | 9th▼ down 4 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 3 | 9th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
8th▼ down 3 | 8th▼ down 3 | 10th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 8%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 3%
- 13th 2%
- 14th 1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th <1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 3.00 (+1.20) | 1st (2.70) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Pateadores Blue | 2.60 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.96) | 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | San Diego Surf White | 2.50 (+0.70) | 2nd (2.40) | 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 2.25 (+0.45) | 8th (1.57) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
7 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf Blue to Legends FC Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 3rd hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Legends FC Gold 8th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA NAVY 4th · 3-0-1 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA RED 12th · 1-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Rebels SC /09 9th · 2-1-2 · GD +7 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Pateadores Blue 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
CDA Slammers FC White 7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
SDSC Surf Blue 13th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
SDSC Surf Gold 15th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM |
Pateadores Gold 14th · 1-0-3 · GD +0 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
San Diego Surf White 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
West Coast FC Navy 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 11:00 AM |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 10th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 1.62 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | +23 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.02 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | -1.03 | +0.34 | 74% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | San Diego Surf White | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -1.14 | +0.21 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sat Nov 14 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.63 | -0.18 | 14% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.60 | +0.25 | 22% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.31 | +0.07 | 19% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | 1.75 | DWLW | +0.03 | +0.02 | 6% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Legends FC Gold | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DWD | +0.76 | -0.16 | 24% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Rebels SC /09 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 7 | 1.40 | WLDWL | -0.29 | +0.11 | 30% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | +0.34 | -0.10 | 7% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 6 | 1.20 | WWLLL | +0.51 | -0.12 | 0% | 14.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC /09 · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.08 | +0.03 | 3% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC /09 · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LDLW | +0.26 | -0.04 | 1% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Pateadores Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.88 | +0.27 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.14 | +0.06 | 1% | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Eagles SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +1.11 | -0.23 | 0% | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Legends FC Black | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.26 | -0.00 | 0% | 15.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 35 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.49 | -0.07 | 0% | 18.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.