TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU14 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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1st
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+22 goal diff · 22–0
WWWlast 3
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1
-0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:45 PM

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San Diego Surf
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC Blue
9th · 1.75 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 13 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.4 against · 2.40 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfEagles SC Blue
Position1st9th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-02-1-1
Points per game3.001.75
Goals for / game7.32.3
Goals against / game0.01.5
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W WW L D W
Biggest win10–0 vs Beach Futbol Club Black3–0 at Rebels SC White
Worst loss—2–3 at Sporting California USA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.38+0.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.81+0.84

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:45 PM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.25 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

87% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.1 average finish
  1. 1st 87%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 0–4 2–3 0–2 0–3 6–0 0–3 10–0 1–0 1–1 San Diego Surf 1st LV Heat Surf 17th LA Breakers Red 7th Beach Futbol Club B… 8th Pateadores 2nd Rebels SC White 5th Rebels SC Blue 10th Eagles SC Blue 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 10th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:45 PM
Eagles SC Blue
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.40 2.85 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Sporting California USA
11th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.61 2.80 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
LAFC GOLD
14th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.78 2.80 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
11:30 AM
FC Long Beach
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 2.73 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +9
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.69 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.62 2.68 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
West Coast FC White
12th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.79 2.69 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
Legends FC - Del Mar
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 2.71 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
10th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.60 2.70 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
LAFC WHITE
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -11
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.94 2.72 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Pateadores
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.79 2.66 Swing game
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
Empire Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 2.65 Bank it
Sat May 8
06:00 PM
Rebels SC White
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.57 2.64 Bank it
Sun May 16
10:00 AM
LA Breakers White
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -30
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 2.99 2.66 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 220+22 93.00 WWW -0.81 -0.07 100% 1.1
2 Pateadores 6501 293+26 152.50 WWWLW -0.97 +0.56 98% 2.2
3 Legends FC 5401 134+9 122.40 WLWWW -0.25 +0.22 63% 4.4
4 FC Long Beach 5311 156+9 102.00 WDWLW -0.99 +0.34 27% 6.4
5 Rebels SC White 5302 128+4 91.80 LWLWW -1.27 +0.49 4% 9.8
6 Empire Surf 5302 107+3 91.80 WWLWL -0.58 +0.26 7% 9.1
7 LA Breakers Red 5302 1311+2 91.80 LLWWW +0.78 -0.39 36% 6.0
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 5302 915-6 91.80 WWWLL +0.62 -0.15 2% 11.0
9 Eagles SC Blue 4211 96+3 71.75 WDLW +0.84 -0.28 42% 5.5
10 Rebels SC Blue 5221 65+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.19 -0.08 8% 8.4
11 Sporting California USA 4202 98+1 61.50 LWWL +0.16 -0.05 8% 8.7
12 West Coast FC White 4202 1212+0 61.50 WWLL -1.02 +0.38 1% 12.1
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 109+1 71.40 LDWLW -0.31 +0.15 2% 10.9
14 LAFC GOLD 5212 79-2 71.40 DWWLL +0.81 -0.31 3% 9.9
15 Legends FC - Del Mar 5104 818-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.01 -0.11 0% 14.7
16 LAFC WHITE 5005 415-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.07 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.34 0% 17.0
18 LA Breakers White 4004 333-30 00.00 LLLL +0.76 +0.07 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.