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Rebels SC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU14 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+4 goal diff · 12–8
LWLWWlast 5
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.8
-1.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM

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Rebels SC White
5th · 1.80 PPG
at

Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.71 expected points)

Season so farRebels SC WhiteBeach Futbol Club Black
Position5th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-23-0-2
Points per game1.801.80
Goals for / game2.41.8
Goals against / game1.63.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W W L W LL L W W W
Biggest win7–2 vs LA Breakers White5–2 vs Legends FC - Del Mar
Worst loss0–3 vs Eagles SC Blue0–10 at San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.20-0.66
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.27+0.62

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Eagles SC Blue, 0–2 at FC Long Beach.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 19% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Long Beach sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above FC Long Beach on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC White – Beach Futbol Club Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
8th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 5
Loss
1.50 PPG
10th▼ down 5 9th▼ down 4 13th▼ down 8

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
9.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 8%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.66) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Pateadores 2.50 (+0.70) 2nd (2.35) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.40 (+0.60) 3rd (1.94) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 FC Long Beach 2.00 (+0.20) 6th (1.72) Win next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC White to Beach Futbol Club Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
7 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–5 2–1 3–1 0–2 0–2 3–0 2–5 0–4 1–2 3–3 1–3 1–2 0–1 0–3 1–1 0–6 10–0 Rebels SC White 5th LV Heat Surf 17th LAFC WHITE 16th FC Long Beach 4th Eagles SC Blue 9th Empire Surf 6th Legends FC - Del Mar 15th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 13th Rebels SC Blue 10th San Diego Surf 1st Beach Futbol Club B… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.49 · 2nd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
03:30 PM
no score posted
Sporting California USA
11th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.25 1.71 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
8th · 3-0-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.71 1.71 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +9
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.05 1.63 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:30 PM
LAFC GOLD
14th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.60 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
LA Breakers Red
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.39 1.58 Upside
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
Empire Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.23 1.55 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:45 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.62 1.56 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:45 PM
West Coast FC White
12th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Southwestern College · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–2 1.84 1.58 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Rebels SC Blue
10th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.47 1.57 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 1.60 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Pateadores
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.33 1.52 Upside
Sat May 8
06:00 PM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +22
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.33 1.45 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 220+22 93.00 WWW -0.81 -0.07 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores 6501 293+26 152.50 WWWLW -0.97 +0.56 98% 2.1
3 Legends FC 5401 134+9 122.40 WLWWW -0.25 +0.22 62% 4.5
4 FC Long Beach 5311 156+9 102.00 WDWLW -0.99 +0.34 28% 6.4
5 Rebels SC White 5302 128+4 91.80 LWLWW -1.27 +0.49 4% 9.8
6 Empire Surf 5302 107+3 91.80 WWLWL -0.58 +0.26 7% 9.0
7 LA Breakers Red 5302 1311+2 91.80 LLWWW +0.78 -0.39 38% 5.8
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 5302 915-6 91.80 WWWLL +0.62 -0.15 1% 11.1
9 Eagles SC Blue 4211 96+3 71.75 WDLW +0.84 -0.28 40% 5.6
10 Rebels SC Blue 5221 65+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.19 -0.08 7% 8.5
11 Sporting California USA 4202 98+1 61.50 LWWL +0.16 -0.05 7% 8.8
12 West Coast FC White 4202 1212+0 61.50 WWLL -1.02 +0.38 1% 12.1
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 109+1 71.40 LDWLW -0.31 +0.15 2% 10.9
14 LAFC GOLD 5212 79-2 71.40 DWWLL +0.81 -0.31 4% 9.9
15 Legends FC - Del Mar 5104 818-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.01 -0.11 0% 14.7
16 LAFC WHITE 5005 415-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.07 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.34 0% 17.0
18 LA Breakers White 4004 333-30 00.00 LLLL +0.76 +0.07 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.