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Legends FC - Del Mar

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU14 · 18 teams · Legends FC - Del Mar (all teams)

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15th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-10 goal diff · 8–18
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.7
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Legends FC - Del Mar
15th · 0.60 PPG
vs
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0.00 PPG

SilverLakes Complex, Field 15 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.5 against · 2.20 expected points)

Season so farLegends FC - Del MarLV Heat Surf
Position15th17th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-40-0-6
Points per game0.600.00
Goals for / game1.60.5
Goals against / game3.64.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W L L L LL L L L L
Biggest win3–1 at LAFC WHITE—
Worst loss1–5 at Legends FC0–6 vs San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.21-2.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+1.03

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–6 vs San Diego Surf.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Long Beach.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 16%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC - Del Mar – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 18th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 15th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 50%
  16. 16th 18%
  17. 17th 3%
  18. 18th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.66) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Pateadores 2.50 (+1.90) 2nd (2.35) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Legends FC 2.40 (+1.80) 3rd (1.94) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 FC Long Beach 2.00 (+1.40) 6th (1.72) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 Rebels SC White 1.80 (+1.20) 11th (1.45) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 1.80 (+1.20) 9th (1.51) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 LA Breakers Red 1.80 (+1.20) 5th (1.79) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.80 (+1.20) 12th (1.35) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 Eagles SC Blue 1.75 (+1.15) 4th (1.83) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
10 Rebels SC Blue 1.60 (+1.00) 7th (1.56) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11 Sporting California USA 1.50 (+0.90) 8th (1.53) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 West Coast FC White 1.50 (+0.90) 14th (1.23) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 1.40 (+0.80) 13th (1.34) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14 LAFC GOLD 1.40 (+0.80) 10th (1.45) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC - Del Mar to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–5 1–2 5–1 1–5 1–0 0–3 3–3 4–0 2–0 2–0 3–1 1–3 0–4 4–0 4–0 4–2 2–1 0–2 0–10 6–0 Legends FC - Del Mar 15th Beach Futbol Club B… 8th Legends FC 3rd FC Long Beach 4th LAFC WHITE 16th Empire Surf 6th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 13th Rebels SC White 5th Pateadores 2nd West Coast FC White 12th San Diego Surf 1st LV Heat Surf 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 13th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -22
Home
SilverLakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.20 0.87 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Eagles SC Blue
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.43 0.80 Upside
Sun Nov 15
08:00 AM
LA Breakers White
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -30
Home
Miramesa High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.56 1.02 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM
LA Breakers Red
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.70 0.99 Upside
Sat Mar 6
09:30 AM
LAFC GOLD
14th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.04 0.99 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Rebels SC Blue
10th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.67 0.96 Upside
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +22
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–6 0.03 0.89 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Empire Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 0.88 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Rebels SC White
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 0.88 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
West Coast FC White
12th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.76 0.87 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.68 0.86 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 220+22 93.00 WWW -0.81 -0.07 100% 1.1
2 Pateadores 6501 293+26 152.50 WWWLW -0.97 +0.56 98% 2.1
3 Legends FC 5401 134+9 122.40 WLWWW -0.25 +0.22 62% 4.5
4 FC Long Beach 5311 156+9 102.00 WDWLW -0.99 +0.34 27% 6.5
5 Rebels SC White 5302 128+4 91.80 LWLWW -1.27 +0.49 5% 9.7
6 Empire Surf 5302 107+3 91.80 WWLWL -0.58 +0.26 7% 9.1
7 LA Breakers Red 5302 1311+2 91.80 LLWWW +0.78 -0.39 36% 5.9
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 5302 915-6 91.80 WWWLL +0.62 -0.15 2% 11.2
9 Eagles SC Blue 4211 96+3 71.75 WDLW +0.84 -0.28 44% 5.5
10 Rebels SC Blue 5221 65+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.19 -0.08 7% 8.6
11 Sporting California USA 4202 98+1 61.50 LWWL +0.16 -0.05 8% 8.7
12 West Coast FC White 4202 1212+0 61.50 WWLL -1.02 +0.38 1% 12.1
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 109+1 71.40 LDWLW -0.31 +0.15 1% 10.9
14 LAFC GOLD 5212 79-2 71.40 DWWLL +0.81 -0.31 3% 9.8
15 Legends FC - Del Mar 5104 818-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.01 -0.11 0% 14.7
16 LAFC WHITE 5005 415-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.07 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.34 0% 17.0
18 LA Breakers White 4004 333-30 00.00 LLLL +0.76 +0.07 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.