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LAFC WHITE

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU14 · 18 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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16th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-11 goal diff · 4–15
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.0
+0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:15 PM

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LAFC WHITE
16th · 0.00 PPG
vs
LAFC GOLD
14th · 1.40 PPG

Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.1 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so farLAFC WHITELAFC GOLD
Position16th14th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-52-1-2
Points per game0.001.40
Goals for / game0.81.4
Goals against / game3.01.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L L L L LL L W W D
Biggest win—4–1 at Empire Surf
Worst loss0–4 vs Pateadores0–4 vs Pateadores
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.28-0.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.47+0.81

Common opponents: Empire Surf — we 0–2; they 4–1. Pateadores — we 0–4; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Empire Surf, 0–4 vs Pateadores.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 23%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC GOLD game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC WHITE – LAFC GOLD) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 18th▼ down 2
Win
0.50 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 18th▼ down 2
Draw
0.17 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 18th▼ down 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 18th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 17%
  16. 16th 55%
  17. 17th 19%
  18. 18th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.12 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.66) 51 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Pateadores 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.35) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Legends FC 2.40 (+2.40) 3rd (1.94) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 FC Long Beach 2.00 (+2.00) 6th (1.72) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5 Rebels SC White 1.80 (+1.80) 11th (1.45) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 1.80 (+1.80) 9th (1.51) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 LA Breakers Red 1.80 (+1.80) 5th (1.79) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.80 (+1.80) 12th (1.35) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 Eagles SC Blue 1.75 (+1.75) 4th (1.83) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
10 Rebels SC Blue 1.60 (+1.60) 7th (1.56) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
11 Sporting California USA 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.53) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
12 West Coast FC White 1.50 (+1.50) 14th (1.23) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 1.40 (+1.40) 13th (1.34) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
14 LAFC GOLD 1.40 (+1.40) 10th (1.45) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
15 Legends FC - Del Mar 0.60 (+0.60) 15th (0.86) 11 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC WHITE to LAFC GOLD through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
3 favour them
-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 4–0 0–2 1–4 2–3 0–3 0–1 0–1 4–0 2–0 1–3 1–5 LAFC WHITE 16th Pateadores 2nd Empire Surf 6th LA Breakers Red 7th Legends FC - Del Mar 15th Legends FC 3rd CDA Slammers FC Bla… 13th LAFC GOLD 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 11th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
06:15 PM
LAFC GOLD
14th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.91 0.15 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club Black
8th · 3-0-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 0.25 Upside
Sat Nov 14
06:15 PM
West Coast FC White
12th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.92 0.34 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:30 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Alemany High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.83 0.39 Upside
Sun Mar 7
11:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
10th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.62 0.41 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
FC Long Beach
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Millikan High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.37 0.41 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LA Breakers White
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -30
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.04 0.54 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -22
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 0.65 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Sporting California USA
11th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 0.66 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +22
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.04 0.62 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.31 0.60 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.40 0.59 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 220+22 93.00 WWW -0.81 -0.07 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores 6501 293+26 152.50 WWWLW -0.97 +0.56 98% 2.1
3 Legends FC 5401 134+9 122.40 WLWWW -0.25 +0.22 63% 4.4
4 FC Long Beach 5311 156+9 102.00 WDWLW -0.99 +0.34 27% 6.5
5 Rebels SC White 5302 128+4 91.80 LWLWW -1.27 +0.49 4% 9.7
6 Empire Surf 5302 107+3 91.80 WWLWL -0.58 +0.26 6% 9.2
7 LA Breakers Red 5302 1311+2 91.80 LLWWW +0.78 -0.39 36% 5.9
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 5302 915-6 91.80 WWWLL +0.62 -0.15 2% 11.2
9 Eagles SC Blue 4211 96+3 71.75 WDLW +0.84 -0.28 42% 5.5
10 Rebels SC Blue 5221 65+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.19 -0.08 9% 8.4
11 Sporting California USA 4202 98+1 61.50 LWWL +0.16 -0.05 8% 8.8
12 West Coast FC White 4202 1212+0 61.50 WWLL -1.02 +0.38 1% 12.0
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 109+1 71.40 LDWLW -0.31 +0.15 2% 10.9
14 LAFC GOLD 5212 79-2 71.40 DWWLL +0.81 -0.31 3% 9.8
15 Legends FC - Del Mar 5104 818-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.01 -0.11 0% 14.8
16 LAFC WHITE 5005 415-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.07 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.34 0% 17.0
18 LA Breakers White 4004 333-30 00.00 LLLL +0.76 +0.07 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.