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Beach Futbol Club Black

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU14 · 18 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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8th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
-6 goal diff · 9–15
WWWLLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
+0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:20 AM

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Beach Futbol Club Black
8th · 1.80 PPG
at
Pateadores
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Edison High School, Turf Fld. ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 1.0 for, 4.7 against · 0.14 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol Club BlackPateadores
Position8th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-25-0-1
Points per game1.802.50
Goals for / game1.84.8
Goals against / game3.00.5
Clean sheets15
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L W W WW L W W W
Biggest win5–2 vs Legends FC - Del Mar12–0 at LA Breakers White
Worst loss0–10 at San Diego Surf2–3 vs Eagles SC Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.66+2.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.62-0.97

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Pateadores score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Pateadores concede only 0.5/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–10 at San Diego Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 3%; a draw (5%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:20 AM at Edison High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LA Breakers Red sit 7th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A point moves us above LA Breakers Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club Black – Pateadores) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
12th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 6
Win
2.00 PPG
5th▲ up 3 5th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 1
Draw
1.67 PPG
9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 6
Loss
1.50 PPG
12th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.66) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Pateadores 2.50 (+0.70) 2nd (2.35) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.40 (+0.60) 3rd (1.94) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 FC Long Beach 2.00 (+0.20) 6th (1.72) Win next game
5 Rebels SC White 1.80 (+0.00) 11th (1.45) A point next game
6 Empire Surf 1.80 (+0.00) 9th (1.51) A point next game
7 LA Breakers Red 1.80 (+0.00) 5th (1.79) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club Black to Pateadores through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
8 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 5–1 0–4 5–2 3–1 0–4 2–1 4–0 2–0 0–4 1–0 1–1 3–2 2–0 2–2 0–4 0–3 0–10 6–0 6–0 1–4 Beach Futbol Club B… 8th Empire Surf 6th Legends FC - Del Mar 15th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 13th Rebels SC Blue 10th San Diego Surf 1st LV Heat Surf 17th LAFC WHITE 16th LAFC GOLD 14th Eagles SC Blue 9th LA Breakers Red 7th Pateadores 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 14th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
10:30 AM
no score posted
West Coast FC White
12th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.02 1.67 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:20 AM
Pateadores
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Away far trip
Edison High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.14 1.45 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM
Rebels SC White
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Home
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.10 1.41 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
LAFC WHITE
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -11
Home
El Camino College
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 1.47 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -22
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.54 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
05:00 PM
FC Long Beach
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 1.47 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
LAFC GOLD
14th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.43 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LA Breakers Red
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.93 1.39 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.85 1.35 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Sporting California USA
11th · 2-0-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.32 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers White
18th · 0-0-4 · GD -30
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.50 1.39 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.67 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 220+22 93.00 WWW -0.81 -0.07 100% 1.2
2 Pateadores 6501 293+26 152.50 WWWLW -0.97 +0.56 98% 2.1
3 Legends FC 5401 134+9 122.40 WLWWW -0.25 +0.22 62% 4.5
4 FC Long Beach 5311 156+9 102.00 WDWLW -0.99 +0.34 27% 6.5
5 Rebels SC White 5302 128+4 91.80 LWLWW -1.27 +0.49 5% 9.7
6 Empire Surf 5302 107+3 91.80 WWLWL -0.58 +0.26 7% 9.1
7 LA Breakers Red 5302 1311+2 91.80 LLWWW +0.78 -0.39 36% 5.9
8 Beach Futbol Club Black 5302 915-6 91.80 WWWLL +0.62 -0.15 1% 11.1
9 Eagles SC Blue 4211 96+3 71.75 WDLW +0.84 -0.28 44% 5.4
10 Rebels SC Blue 5221 65+1 81.60 DDLWW +0.19 -0.08 7% 8.5
11 Sporting California USA 4202 98+1 61.50 LWWL +0.16 -0.05 8% 8.7
12 West Coast FC White 4202 1212+0 61.50 WWLL -1.02 +0.38 1% 12.2
13 CDA Slammers FC Black 5212 109+1 71.40 LDWLW -0.31 +0.15 1% 11.0
14 LAFC GOLD 5212 79-2 71.40 DWWLL +0.81 -0.31 4% 9.8
15 Legends FC - Del Mar 5104 818-10 30.60 LLLLW -0.01 -0.11 0% 14.7
16 LAFC WHITE 5005 415-11 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.07 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 6006 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.34 0% 17.0
18 LA Breakers White 4004 333-30 00.00 LLLL +0.76 +0.07 0% 17.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.