FC Long Beach
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU14 · 18 teams · FC Long Beach Blues (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
Orange County Great Park, Field 11 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.0 against · 1.87 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Long Beach | West Coast FC White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W D W | L L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–1 vs LA Breakers White | 8–0 vs LA Breakers White |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Rebels SC Blue | 0–6 at LA Breakers Red |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.78 | -0.30 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.99 | -1.02 |
Common opponents: LA Breakers White — we 6–1; they 8–0.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 17% / loss 26%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Orange County Great Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Coast FC White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Long Beach – West Coast FC White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.83 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
10th▼ down 6 | 9th▼ down 5 | 12th▼ down 8 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 13%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 6%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 2%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.66) | 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 2 | Pateadores | 2.50 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.35) | 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | Legends FC | 2.40 (+0.40) | 3rd (1.94) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link FC Long Beach to West Coast FC White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.34 · 4th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
West Coast FC White 12th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–2 | 1.87 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Eagles SC Blue 9th · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.31 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:45 AM |
Pateadores 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26 |
Home Cabrillo High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM |
San Diego Surf 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +22 |
Home Cabrillo High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.52 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 05:00 PM |
Beach Futbol Club Black 8th · 3-0-2 · GD -6 |
Away Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
LAFC WHITE 16th · 0-0-5 · GD -11 |
Home Millikan High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–0 | 2.52 | 1.72 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Legends FC 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
LA Breakers Red 7th · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.42 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Empire Surf 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Galway Downs |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
LV Heat Surf 17th · 0-0-6 · GD -22 |
Home Millikan High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 1.72 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 05:00 PM |
LAFC GOLD 14th · 2-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Millikan High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Sporting California USA 11th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–1 | 1.58 | 1.72 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Diego Surf | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | +22 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.81 | -0.07 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eagles SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC GOLD See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pateadores | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 3 | +26 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | -0.97 | +0.56 | 98% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Long Beach See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Legends FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.25 | +0.22 | 64% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Long Beach | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWLW | -0.99 | +0.34 | 27% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Coast FC White · Sat Oct 31 at Eagles SC Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Rebels SC White | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -1.27 | +0.49 | 4% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Empire Surf | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLWL | -0.58 | +0.26 | 6% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers Red · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LA Breakers Red | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.78 | -0.39 | 36% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Empire Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 21 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | +0.62 | -0.15 | 1% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at West Coast FC White · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eagles SC Blue | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | +0.84 | -0.28 | 42% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Long Beach See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rebels SC Blue | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | DDLWW | +0.19 | -0.08 | 8% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers Red See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | +0.16 | -0.05 | 7% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 24 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | West Coast FC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | -1.02 | +0.38 | 1% | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Long Beach · Sun Nov 1 at LAFC GOLD See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | LDWLW | -0.31 | +0.15 | 1% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Eagles SC Blue · Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LAFC GOLD | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 | 1.40 | DWWLL | +0.81 | -0.31 | 4% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 at San Diego Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | -0.01 | -0.11 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Nov 14 at Eagles SC Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LAFC WHITE | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.47 | -0.07 | 0% | 16.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 14 vs West Coast FC White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.03 | -0.34 | 0% | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Beach Futbol Club Black See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | LA Breakers White | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 33 | -30 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.76 | +0.07 | 0% | 17.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Empire Surf · Sun Nov 15 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.