Sting Brave NTX

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Dallas Soccer Park, Field 6 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.3 against · 1.56 expected points)

Common opponents: NTX Celtic FC NTX — we 2–1; they 0–3. SOLAR WHITE NTX — we 0–1; they 0–3. Dutch FC NTX — we 3–3; they 0–2. NTX United FC NTX — we 3–4; they 0–3. Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna — we 6–4; they 9–2.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX, 0–2 vs DKSC NTX, 0–4 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 46% / draw 18% / loss 36%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 08:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX sit 10th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.22.

  A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Brave NTX – Nido Dallas Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 2%
6. 6th 4%
7. 7th 9%
8. 8th 13%
9. 9th 17%
10. 10th 19%
11. 11th 16%
12. 12th 10%
13. 13th 6%
14. 14th 2%
15. 15th <1%
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.93 PPG if we win out).