Dutch FC NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · Dutch FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:20 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.9 against · 2.33 expected points)
| Season so far | Dutch FC NTX | FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-2-2 | 2-2-5 |
| Points per game | 1.89 | 0.89 |
| Goals for / game | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D W L | D W D L L |
| Biggest win | 6–1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna | 5–2 at Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX |
| Worst loss | 2–6 at Nido Dallas NTX | 2–5 vs Nido Dallas NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.88 | -0.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | -0.06 |
Common opponents: DKSC NTX — we 2–2; they 1–1. Nido Dallas Blue NTX — we 2–0; they 4–2. FC Dallas Youth NTX Che — we 5–1; they 2–5. Nido Dallas NTX — we 2–6; they 2–5. FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 5–1; they 0–2. Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand — we 2–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
NTX United FC NTX sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.89.A win moves us above NTX United FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dutch FC NTX – FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.80 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.70 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 35%
- 4th 28%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 3%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nido Dallas NTX | 3.00 (+1.11) | 2nd (2.68) | 28 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 3.00 (+1.11) | 1st (2.68) | 28 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | NTX United FC NTX | 2.00 (+0.11) | 3rd (1.87) | Win next game |
How the results connect
49 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Dutch FC NTX to FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
20 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.28 · 6th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
FC Dallas Youth White NTX 2nd · 7-0-0 · GD +24 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 1.75 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 03:20 PM |
FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas 12th · 2-2-5 · GD -7 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.33 | 1.80 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:40 AM |
FC Dallas Youth NTX 13th · 2-2-5 · GD -9 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.31 | 1.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM |
NTX Celtic FC NTX 7th · 4-1-3 · GD +7 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.69 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 01:30 PM |
SOLAR WHITE NTX 6th · 5-2-3 · GD +4 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 08:00 AM |
Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9th · 4-2-4 · GD -4 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
3–2 | 1.90 | 1.81 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nido Dallas NTX | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 6 | +26 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.18 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth NTX Che See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.19 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Mon Jan 1 vs Dutch FC NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTX United FC NTX | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 | 2.00 | LWWWL | +0.17 | -0.17 | 67% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Dutch FC NTX | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 17 | 1.89 | LWDWL | -0.24 | +0.28 | 63% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | DKSC NTX | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWDD | -0.36 | +0.29 | 17% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Che · Sat Oct 24 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 17 | 1.70 | LWDLW | +0.03 | -0.00 | 28% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Apr 4 vs DKSC NTX See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 13 | 1.63 | WLDWW | -0.31 | +0.32 | 19% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs DKSC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 | 1.40 | WLLWW | +0.06 | -0.08 | 4% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Apr 4 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sun Apr 18 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 14 | 1.40 | DLWLL | +0.13 | +0.02 | 2% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 8 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Apr 4 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 | 1.33 | WWLLW | -0.19 | +0.38 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at NTX United FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sun Apr 4 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Sting Brave NTX | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 11 | 1.22 | LLDLW | +0.14 | -0.15 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Nov 8 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Apr 4 at Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 8 | 0.89 | LLDWD | -0.06 | +0.26 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Oct 24 at Dutch FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs NTX United FC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 8 | 0.89 | WDLLL | +0.53 | -0.60 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 8 at Dutch FC NTX · Sun Apr 4 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Che See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 7 | 0.78 | LLLWL | -0.00 | +0.16 | 0% | 13.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Apr 4 at Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | FC Dallas Youth NTX Che | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 6 | 0.67 | LWLLL | -0.07 | +0.43 | 0% | 14.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at DKSC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Sun Apr 4 at FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 42 | -28 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.17 | +0.67 | 0% | 16.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at NTX United FC NTX · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.