TableChase Clubs

FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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12th
2-2-5 record · 9 played
0.89 points per game
-7 goal diff · 18–25
LLDWDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.6
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:20 PM

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FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas
12th · 0.89 PPG
at
Dutch FC NTX
4th · 1.89 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.9 for, 3.9 against · 0.55 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth NTX VargasDutch FC NTX
Position12th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-55-2-2
Points per game0.891.89
Goals for / game2.03.2
Goals against / game2.81.9
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)D W D L LL W D W L
Biggest win5–2 at Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX6–1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna
Worst loss2–5 vs Nido Dallas NTX2–6 at Nido Dallas NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.57+0.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-0.24

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 0–2; they 5–1. Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand — we 0–2; they 2–3. Nido Dallas Blue NTX — we 4–2; they 2–0. Nido Dallas NTX — we 2–5; they 2–6. FC Dallas Youth NTX Che — we 2–5; they 5–1. DKSC NTX — we 1–1; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Dutch FC NTX score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX, 0–2 at Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dutch FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas – Dutch FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.80 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Win
1.10 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Draw
0.90 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Loss
0.80 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 33%
  14. 14th 25%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nido Dallas NTX 3.00 (+2.11) 2nd (2.68) 37 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 3.00 (+2.11) 1st (2.68) 37 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 NTX United FC NTX 2.00 (+1.11) 3rd (1.87) 22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Dutch FC NTX 1.89 (+1.00) 4th (1.81) 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 DKSC NTX 1.71 (+0.82) 6th (1.58) 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 1.70 (+0.81) 5th (1.66) 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
7 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1.63 (+0.74) 7th (1.56) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
8 Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand 1.40 (+0.51) 8th (1.44) 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
9 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.40 (+0.51) 9th (1.36) 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.33 (+0.44) 11th (1.18) 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
11 Sting Brave NTX 1.22 (+0.33) 10th (1.29) 11 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

49 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas to Dutch FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
8 even
27 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–2 4–2 0–2 2–5 6–2 0–2 3–2 0–2 1–5 2–5 1–5 5–2 2–1 3–1 5–3 0–6 0–2 FC Dallas Youth NTX… 12th DKSC NTX 5th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 14th Nido Dallas NTX 1st Atlético Dallas You… 8th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 10th FC Dallas Youth NTX… 15th Atletico Dallas You… 9th Dutch FC NTX 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

20 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 21 Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 7th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
7th · 4-1-3 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.96 0.90 Upside
Sat Oct 24
03:20 PM		 Dutch FC NTX
4th · 5-2-2 · GD +12		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 0.86 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:20 PM		 NTX United FC NTX
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +5		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.97 0.87 Upside
Sat Apr 3
07:00 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna
16th · 0-0-9 · GD -28		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 4–2 2.41 0.99 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
01:30 PM		 Sting Brave NTX
11th · 3-2-4 · GD -3		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–2 1.06 1.00 Upside
Sun Apr 18
03:20 PM		 FC Dallas Youth White NTX
2nd · 7-0-0 · GD +24		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.27 0.95 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nido Dallas NTX 8800 326+26 243.00 WWWWW -0.18 -0.06 100% 1.5
2 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7700 295+24 213.00 WWWWW -0.19 -0.09 100% 1.5
3 NTX United FC NTX 8512 1712+5 162.00 LWWWL +0.17 -0.17 68% 4.2
4 Dutch FC NTX 9522 2917+12 171.89 LWDWL -0.24 +0.28 63% 4.4
5 DKSC NTX 7331 117+4 121.71 WWWDD -0.36 +0.29 17% 6.6
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 10523 2016+4 171.70 LWDLW +0.03 -0.00 27% 5.8
7 NTX Celtic FC NTX 8413 2013+7 131.63 WLDWW -0.31 +0.32 19% 6.6
8 Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand 10424 1513+2 141.40 WLLWW +0.06 -0.08 3% 7.9
9 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 10424 2327-4 141.40 DLWLL +0.13 +0.02 2% 9.0
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9405 1319-6 121.33 WWLLW -0.19 +0.38 0% 10.7
11 Sting Brave NTX 9324 1922-3 111.22 LLDLW +0.14 -0.15 1% 9.7
12 FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas 9225 1825-7 80.89 LLDWD -0.06 +0.26 0% 12.6
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX 9225 1120-9 80.89 WDLLL +0.53 -0.60 0% 11.7
14 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 9216 1727-10 70.78 LLLWL -0.00 +0.16 0% 13.2
15 FC Dallas Youth NTX Che 9207 1431-17 60.67 LWLLL -0.07 +0.43 0% 14.6
16 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 9009 1442-28 00.00 LLLLL -0.17 +0.67 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.