TableChase Clubs

SOLAR WHITE NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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6th
5-2-3 record · 10 played
1.70 points per game
+4 goal diff · 20–16
LWDLWlast 5
27% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.8
+0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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SOLAR WHITE NTX
6th · 1.70 PPG
at
NTX Celtic FC NTX
7th · 1.63 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.0 against · 1.15 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR WHITE NTXNTX Celtic FC NTX
Position6th7th
Record (W-D-L)5-2-34-1-3
Points per game1.701.63
Goals for / game2.02.5
Goals against / game1.61.6
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L D W LW W D L W
Biggest win6–2 at FC Dallas Youth NTX5–1 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Worst loss1–5 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX3–6 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.31+0.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.03-0.31

Common opponents: Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna — we 3–0; they 3–0. Sting Brave NTX — we 1–0; they 1–2. FC Dallas Youth White NTX — we 1–5; they 3–6. Nido Dallas Blue NTX — we 3–0; they 3–0. FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 1–2; they 5–1. Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand — we 1–0; they 0–1. FC Dallas Youth NTX — we 6–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    DKSC NTX sit 5th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.70.

    A point moves us above DKSC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NTX Celtic FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR WHITE NTX – NTX Celtic FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.55 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
1.82 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.64 PPG		 6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Loss
1.55 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
27% top 4
73% below the top 4
5.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nido Dallas NTX 3.00 (+1.30) 2nd (2.68) 28 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 3.00 (+1.30) 1st (2.68) 28 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 NTX United FC NTX 2.00 (+0.30) 3rd (1.87) 13 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
4 Dutch FC NTX 1.89 (+0.19) 4th (1.81) 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
5 DKSC NTX 1.71 (+0.01) 6th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

44 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR WHITE NTX to NTX Celtic FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us
9 even
18 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 3–0 0–3 1–5 6–3 6–2 0–2 1–0 1–0 1–0 2–1 1–2 1–5 1–4 3–1 6–0 3–0 3–3 0–4 6–4 SOLAR WHITE NTX 6th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 14th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 16th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 2nd FC Dallas Youth NTX 13th Atlético Dallas You… 8th Sting Brave NTX 11th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 10th Nido Dallas NTX 1st Atletico Dallas You… 9th NTX Celtic FC NTX 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

20 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 21 Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 10th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
7th · 4-1-3 · GD +7		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.15 1.65 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
9th · 4-2-4 · GD -4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.90 1.67 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 DKSC NTX
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.45 1.65 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:30 PM		 Dutch FC NTX
4th · 5-2-2 · GD +12		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.32 1.63 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth NTX Che
15th · 2-0-7 · GD -17		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.14 1.66 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nido Dallas NTX 8800 326+26 243.00 WWWWW -0.18 -0.06 100% 1.5
2 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7700 295+24 213.00 WWWWW -0.19 -0.09 100% 1.5
3 NTX United FC NTX 8512 1712+5 162.00 LWWWL +0.17 -0.17 67% 4.2
4 Dutch FC NTX 9522 2917+12 171.89 LWDWL -0.24 +0.28 63% 4.4
5 DKSC NTX 7331 117+4 121.71 WWWDD -0.36 +0.29 18% 6.6
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 10523 2016+4 171.70 LWDLW +0.03 -0.00 27% 5.8
7 NTX Celtic FC NTX 8413 2013+7 131.63 WLDWW -0.31 +0.32 18% 6.5
8 Atlético Dallas Youth NTX Hernand 10424 1513+2 141.40 WLLWW +0.06 -0.08 4% 7.8
9 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 10424 2327-4 141.40 DLWLL +0.13 +0.02 2% 9.0
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 9405 1319-6 121.33 WWLLW -0.19 +0.38 0% 10.8
11 Sting Brave NTX 9324 1922-3 111.22 LLDLW +0.14 -0.15 0% 9.6
12 FC Dallas Youth NTX Vargas 9225 1825-7 80.89 LLDWD -0.06 +0.26 0% 12.6
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX 9225 1120-9 80.89 WDLLL +0.53 -0.60 0% 11.8
14 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 9216 1727-10 70.78 LLLWL -0.00 +0.16 0% 13.2
15 FC Dallas Youth NTX Che 9207 1431-17 60.67 LWLLL -0.07 +0.43 0% 14.6
16 Kernow Storm FC NTX Penna 9009 1442-28 00.00 LLLLL -0.17 +0.67 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.