Folsom Lake Surf
ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 13 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.7 against · 1.50 expected points)
| Season so far | Folsom Lake Surf | Placer United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-0 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per game | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W D | W W W D D |
| Biggest win | 7–1 at COSC | 7–0 vs San Juan SC |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.39 | +1.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.21 | -0.40 |
Common opponents: El Camino FC Salinas — we 2–1; they 3–1. COSC — we 7–1; they 0–0. Santa Clara Sporting — we 1–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Placer United score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Placer United concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 22% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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They arrive in form
Placer United have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Placer United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – Placer United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.43 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.43 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.29 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 70%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 7%
- 4th 2%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
10 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to Placer United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.27 · 16th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Placer United 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +14 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 2.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
MVLA 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.33 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Marin FC 11th · 2-2-2 · GD +2 |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
1974 Newark FC 5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Newark Sportsfield Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 05:15 PM |
Davis Legacy 9th · 2-3-1 · GD +3 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 04:00 PM |
Association FC B09/10 15th · 2-0-5 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
San Francisco Elite Academy 10th · 3-1-3 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 2.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 02:00 PM |
Santa Rosa United 17th · 0-0-7 · GD -29 |
Away far trip
Trione Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 01:15 PM |
River Islands Surf 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 2.36 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
San Juan SC 16th · 0-0-5 · GD -16 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.75 | 2.38 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folsom Lake Surf | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | +0.21 | -0.27 | 99% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Placer United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 14 | 2.33 | DDWWW | -0.40 | +0.09 | 91% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B09/10 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | River Islands Surf | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.37 | +0.23 | 36% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 15 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 13 | 1.86 | LDWWW | -0.25 | -0.00 | 75% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | 1974 Newark FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWLW | -0.04 | +0.07 | 4% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | MVLA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | LWDWL | +0.05 | -0.05 | 10% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Santa Clara Sporting | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | WDDWL | +0.28 | -0.14 | 18% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B09/10 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWW | +0.40 | -0.39 | 31% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | WLDDW | +0.24 | -0.20 | 21% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 | 1.43 | DLWLL | +0.01 | +0.05 | 3% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Marin FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 8 | 1.33 | LDWLW | -0.23 | +0.07 | 4% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Napa United | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 9 | 1.29 | WWWLL | -0.21 | +0.08 | 6% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Mustang Soccer | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 8 | 1.14 | WLLWL | -0.14 | +0.06 | 1% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | COSC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 7 | 1.00 | LLLLW | +0.18 | -0.02 | 0% | 14.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Association FC B09/10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLLL | -0.14 | +0.18 | 0% | 13.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Juan SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.23 | +0.08 | 0% | 16.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B09/10 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Santa Rosa United | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +0.15 | 0% | 16.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.