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Napa United

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · Napa United (all teams)

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13th
3-0-5 record · 8 played
1.13 points per game
+3 goal diff · 21–18
WWLLLlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM

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Napa United
13th · 1.13 PPG
at
El Camino FC Salinas
8th · 1.57 PPG

Salinas Regional Soccer Complex, Turf #1 ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.6 against · 1.10 expected points)

Season so farNapa UnitedEl Camino FC Salinas
Position13th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-53-2-2
Points per game1.131.57
Goals for / game2.62.1
Goals against / game2.31.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L L W WW W D L D
Biggest win5–0 at San Francisco Elite Academy5–2 at MVLA
Worst loss1–4 at Folsom Lake Surf1–3 vs Placer United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.25+0.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+0.40

Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 1–4; they 1–2. Davis Legacy — we 1–2; they 2–2. Association FC B09/10 — we 4–1; they 2–0. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 5–0; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at River Islands Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Salinas Regional Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Mustang Soccer sit 12th on 1.14 PPG; we are on 1.13.

    A point moves us above Mustang Soccer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the El Camino FC Salinas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Napa United – El Camino FC Salinas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.11 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Win
1.33 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 13th— holds
Draw
1.11 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
10.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.54) 1st (2.38) 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.33 (+1.20) 2nd (2.14) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.87) 3rd (2.02) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+0.87) 4th (1.76) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 1974 Newark FC 1.80 (+0.67) 9th (1.39) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
6 MVLA 1.67 (+0.54) 8th (1.53) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
7 Santa Clara Sporting 1.60 (+0.47) 7th (1.62) 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 El Camino FC Salinas 1.57 (+0.44) 5th (1.71) 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.37) 6th (1.64) 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.43 (+0.30) 11th (1.39) 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
11 Marin FC 1.33 (+0.20) 10th (1.39) A point next game
12 Mustang Soccer 1.14 (+0.01) 13th (1.27) A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Napa United to El Camino FC Salinas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
14 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 0–2 1–2 2–2 1–4 2–1 5–0 2–3 1–2 0–1 1–1 1–0 6–2 1–4 0–4 4–1 1–1 1–0 3–4 1–4 3–1 Napa United 13th Association FC B09/… 15th Davis Legacy 9th Folsom Lake Surf 1st San Francisco Elite… 10th Los Gatos United So… 3rd Santa Rosa United 17th 1974 Newark FC 5th Marin FC 11th Placer United 2nd El Camino FC Salinas 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
8th · 3-2-2 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–2 1.10 1.12 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 COSC
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.06 1.22 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
11:15 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +2		 Home
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.44 1.24 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 San Juan SC
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.40 1.33 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
11:15 AM		 Placer United
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +14		 Home
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.82 1.29 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 MVLA
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.35 1.30 Upside
Sat May 1
11:15 AM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-2-2 · GD +2		 Home
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.60 1.32 Swing game
Sat May 8
11:15 AM		 Mustang Soccer
12th · 2-2-3 · GD +2		 Home
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–2 1.62 1.34 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 186+12 162.67 DWWWW +0.19 -0.27 99% 1.5
2 Placer United 6420 195+14 142.33 DDWWW -0.39 +0.08 92% 2.5
3 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 8512 196+13 162.00 DWWWW -0.18 -0.04 84% 3.2
4 River Islands Surf 7421 158+7 142.00 DWLWW -0.38 +0.22 35% 5.8
5 1974 Newark FC 5302 1012-2 91.80 LWWLW -0.06 +0.07 5% 9.9
6 MVLA 6312 1414+0 101.67 LWDWL +0.05 -0.06 8% 8.3
7 Santa Clara Sporting 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.28 -0.14 19% 7.4
8 El Camino FC Salinas 7322 1512+3 111.57 DLDWW +0.40 -0.40 30% 6.2
9 Davis Legacy 6231 129+3 91.50 WLDDW +0.22 -0.20 20% 6.8
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 7313 1312+1 101.43 DLWLL -0.01 +0.05 2% 9.8
11 Marin FC 6222 1311+2 81.33 LDWLW -0.23 +0.06 4% 9.7
12 Mustang Soccer 7223 1412+2 81.14 WLLWL -0.14 +0.05 1% 10.9
13 Napa United 8305 2118+3 91.13 WWLLL -0.01 -0.05 3% 10.1
14 COSC 7214 617-11 71.00 LLLLW +0.18 -0.03 0% 14.2
15 Association FC B09/10 7205 812-4 60.86 LWLLL -0.15 +0.18 0% 13.7
16 San Juan SC 5005 521-16 00.00 LLLLL +0.22 +0.08 0% 16.1
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 433-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.24 +0.15 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.