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Santa Clara Sporting

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · Santa Clara Sporting (all teams)

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7th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
+2 goal diff · 8–6
WDDWLlast 5
21% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Santa Clara Sporting
7th · 1.60 PPG
at
Association FC B09/10
15th · 0.86 PPG

Witter Sports Complex, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.1 against · 1.69 expected points)

Season so farSanta Clara SportingAssociation FC B09/10
Position7th15th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-12-0-5
Points per game1.600.86
Goals for / game1.61.1
Goals against / game1.21.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)L W D D WL L L W L
Biggest win3–1 vs San Juan SC4–1 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss0–1 at Folsom Lake Surf1–4 at Napa United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.30-0.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.28-0.14

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Folsom Lake Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 26% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Association FC B09/10 have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:30 PM at Witter Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    MVLA sit 6th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above MVLA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Association FC B09/10 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Clara Sporting – Association FC B09/10) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.50 PPG		 9th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 4
Win
1.83 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG		 9th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 4
Loss
1.33 PPG		 11th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 4 13th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
21% top 4
79% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.07) 1st (2.38) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Placer United 2.33 (+0.73) 2nd (2.14) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+0.40) 4th (1.76) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.26) 3rd (1.95) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 1974 Newark FC 1.80 (+0.20) 10th (1.39) A point next game
6 MVLA 1.67 (+0.07) 8th (1.53) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Santa Clara Sporting to Association FC B09/10 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
4 favour them
+2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 1–0 1–0 2–1 2–2 1–3 1–4 2–2 2–5 2–0 2–1 2–1 1–1 0–0 2–0 3–3 1–1 2–1 3–1 1–2 3–1 Santa Clara Sporting 7th Folsom Lake Surf 1st Marin FC 11th MVLA 6th Placer United 2nd San Juan SC 16th Los Gatos United So… 4th Mustang Soccer 13th El Camino FC Salinas 8th COSC 14th Association FC B09/… 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 14th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:30 PM		 Association FC B09/10
15th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Witter Sports Complex · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.69 1.61 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
10th · 3-1-3 · GD +1		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.68 1.62 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -29		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–0 2.61 1.75 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 River Islands Surf
3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +7		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.36 1.70 Upside
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM		 1974 Newark FC
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.86 1.72 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
11:15 AM		 Napa United
12th · 3-0-4 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.32 1.68 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
13th · 2-2-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.38 1.66 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +12		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.02 1.61 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 El Camino FC Salinas
8th · 3-2-2 · GD +3		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.47 1.60 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 COSC
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–0 2.00 1.63 Swing game
Sat May 8
11:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
9th · 2-3-1 · GD +3		 Home
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 1.62 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 186+12 162.67 DWWWW +0.21 -0.27 99% 1.5
2 Placer United 6420 195+14 142.33 DDWWW -0.40 +0.09 92% 2.5
3 River Islands Surf 7421 158+7 142.00 DWLWW -0.37 +0.23 38% 5.6
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 175+12 131.86 LDWWW -0.25 -0.00 73% 3.8
5 1974 Newark FC 5302 1012-2 91.80 LWWLW -0.04 +0.07 5% 10.0
6 MVLA 6312 1414+0 101.67 LWDWL +0.05 -0.05 10% 8.5
7 Santa Clara Sporting 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.28 -0.14 21% 7.3
8 El Camino FC Salinas 7322 1512+3 111.57 DLDWW +0.40 -0.39 28% 6.1
9 Davis Legacy 6231 129+3 91.50 WLDDW +0.24 -0.20 21% 6.9
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 7313 1312+1 101.43 DLWLL +0.01 +0.05 3% 10.0
11 Marin FC 6222 1311+2 81.33 LDWLW -0.23 +0.07 4% 9.7
12 Napa United 7304 2016+4 91.29 WWWLL -0.21 +0.08 5% 9.4
13 Mustang Soccer 7223 1412+2 81.14 WLLWL -0.14 +0.06 1% 11.0
14 COSC 7214 617-11 71.00 LLLLW +0.18 -0.02 0% 14.3
15 Association FC B09/10 7205 812-4 60.86 LWLLL -0.14 +0.18 0% 13.7
16 San Juan SC 5005 521-16 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.08 0% 16.1
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 433-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.25 +0.15 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.