Los Gatos United Soccer Club

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Silverado Middle School, Football Field ↗ far trip

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.5 against · 1.90 expected points)

Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 0–1; they 1–4. Davis Legacy — we 1–1; they 1–2. Association FC B09/10 — we 1–0; they 4–1. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–0; they 5–0. Santa Rosa United — we 9–0; they 6–2.

• Respect their attack
  Napa United score 2.9/game — well above the league's 1.9.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Folsom Lake Surf.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 57% / draw 19% / loss 24%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:15 AM at Silverado Middle School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  River Islands Surf sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.86.

  A win moves us above River Islands Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Napa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Los Gatos United Soccer Club – Napa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 5%
2. 2nd 20%
3. 3rd 31%
4. 4th 19%
5. 5th 11%
6. 6th 7%
7. 7th 4%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 1%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th <1%
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th
17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).