TableChase Clubs

El Camino FC Salinas

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · El Camino FC Salinas (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
8th
3-2-2 record · 7 played
1.57 points per game
+3 goal diff · 15–12
DLDWWlast 5
31% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
+0.40 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

Open the match preview →

El Camino FC Salinas
8th · 1.57 PPG
at
River Islands Surf
3rd · 2.00 PPG

River Islands Sports Park, Field 2 (11v11) ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.9 against · 1.15 expected points)

Season so farEl Camino FC SalinasRiver Islands Surf
Position8th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-2-24-2-1
Points per game1.572.00
Goals for / game2.12.1
Goals against / game1.71.1
Clean sheets14
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W D L DW W L W D
Biggest win5–2 at MVLA3–0 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss1–3 vs Placer United2–3 vs 1974 Newark FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.45+0.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.40-0.37

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 2–2; they 2–2. Association FC B09/10 — we 2–0; they 1–0. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 3–2; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at River Islands Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Santa Clara Sporting sit 7th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.57.

    A point moves us above Santa Clara Sporting on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the River Islands Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (El Camino FC Salinas – River Islands Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.50 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 11th▼ down 3
Win
1.75 PPG		 6th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 3 8th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 11th▼ down 3
Loss
1.38 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
31% top 4
69% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.10) 1st (2.38) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.33 (+0.76) 2nd (2.14) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+0.43) 4th (1.76) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.29) 3rd (1.95) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 1974 Newark FC 1.80 (+0.23) 10th (1.39) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
6 MVLA 1.67 (+0.10) 8th (1.53) A point next game
7 Santa Clara Sporting 1.60 (+0.03) 7th (1.62) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link El Camino FC Salinas to River Islands Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–2 3–2 3–3 2–0 0–1 1–0 0–1 1–2 4–1 0–3 1–1 2–2 4–0 0–3 4–1 2–1 3–3 1–3 4–1 3–2 3–1 El Camino FC Salinas 8th Davis Legacy 9th San Francisco Elite… 10th Association FC B09/… 15th Folsom Lake Surf 1st Marin FC 11th Placer United 2nd Mustang Soccer 13th Napa United 12th Santa Rosa United 17th 1974 Newark FC 5th River Islands Surf 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.39 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 River Islands Surf
3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +7		 Away far trip
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.15 1.52 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Napa United
12th · 3-0-4 · GD +4		 Home
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–2 1.69 1.54 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Mustang Soccer
13th · 2-2-3 · GD +2		 Home
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 1.56 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +12		 Home
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.03 1.51 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.97 1.55 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 COSC
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.12 1.59 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.29 1.57 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 San Juan SC
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–1 2.63 1.64 Bank it
Sat May 8
04:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -29		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–0 2.72 1.71 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 186+12 162.67 DWWWW +0.21 -0.27 99% 1.4
2 Placer United 6420 195+14 142.33 DDWWW -0.40 +0.09 92% 2.5
3 River Islands Surf 7421 158+7 142.00 DWLWW -0.37 +0.23 37% 5.7
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 175+12 131.86 LDWWW -0.25 -0.00 73% 3.8
5 1974 Newark FC 5302 1012-2 91.80 LWWLW -0.04 +0.07 5% 10.0
6 MVLA 6312 1414+0 101.67 LWDWL +0.05 -0.05 10% 8.4
7 Santa Clara Sporting 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.28 -0.14 19% 7.4
8 El Camino FC Salinas 7322 1512+3 111.57 DLDWW +0.40 -0.39 31% 6.0
9 Davis Legacy 6231 129+3 91.50 WLDDW +0.24 -0.20 21% 6.8
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 7313 1312+1 101.43 DLWLL +0.01 +0.05 3% 9.9
11 Marin FC 6222 1311+2 81.33 LDWLW -0.23 +0.07 4% 9.7
12 Napa United 7304 2016+4 91.29 WWWLL -0.21 +0.08 5% 9.5
13 Mustang Soccer 7223 1412+2 81.14 WLLWL -0.14 +0.06 2% 10.9
14 COSC 7214 617-11 71.00 LLLLW +0.18 -0.02 0% 14.2
15 Association FC B09/10 7205 812-4 60.86 LWLLL -0.14 +0.18 0% 13.8
16 San Juan SC 5005 521-16 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.08 0% 16.1
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 433-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.25 +0.15 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.