TableChase Clubs

COSC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)

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14th
2-1-4 record · 7 played
1.00 points per game
-11 goal diff · 6–17
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.3
+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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COSC
14th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Santa Rosa United
17th · 0.00 PPG

San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C, field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.22 expected points)

Season so farCOSCSanta Rosa United
Position14th17th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-40-0-7
Points per game1.000.00
Goals for / game0.90.6
Goals against / game2.44.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)W L L L LL L L L L
Biggest win2–0 vs Association FC B09/10—
Worst loss1–7 vs Folsom Lake Surf0–9 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.03-2.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.18+0.25

Common opponents: Association FC B09/10 — we 2–0; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Santa Rosa United average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Santa Rosa United concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Placer United, 0–3 at Marin FC, 0–4 at Davis Legacy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 69% / draw 17% / loss 15%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Santa Rosa United have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Mustang Soccer sit 13th on 1.14 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Mustang Soccer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG		 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG		 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.88 PPG		 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 28%
  15. 15th 51%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.67) 1st (2.38) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.33 (+1.33) 2nd (2.14) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.76) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.86) 3rd (1.95) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 1974 Newark FC 1.80 (+0.80) 10th (1.39) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
6 MVLA 1.67 (+0.67) 8th (1.53) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
7 Santa Clara Sporting 1.60 (+0.60) 7th (1.62) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 El Camino FC Salinas 1.57 (+0.57) 5th (1.71) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.50) 6th (1.64) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.43 (+0.43) 12th (1.39) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11 Marin FC 1.33 (+0.33) 11th (1.39) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
12 Napa United 1.29 (+0.29) 9th (1.41) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
13 Mustang Soccer 1.14 (+0.14) 13th (1.27) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link COSC to Santa Rosa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
3 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 4–1 0–4 2–2 3–0 2–1 6–2 1–7 4–1 0–3 2–2 5–1 1–3 3–3 1–4 1–4 9–0 0–1 1–0 1–1 COSC 14th Association FC B09/… 15th Davis Legacy 9th Folsom Lake Surf 1st Marin FC 11th River Islands Surf 3rd Napa United 12th Mustang Soccer 13th Los Gatos United So… 4th Santa Rosa United 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -29		 Home
San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.22 1.15 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 River Islands Surf
3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +7		 Away far trip
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.48 1.08 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Napa United
12th · 3-0-4 · GD +4		 Home
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.73 1.04 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
13th · 2-2-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.64 1.01 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +12		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.31 0.95 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 El Camino FC Salinas
8th · 3-2-2 · GD +3		 Home
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.70 0.93 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
5th · 3-0-2 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.77 0.92 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +2		 Home
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 0–1 0.78 0.91 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
10th · 3-1-3 · GD +1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.69 0.89 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 186+12 162.67 DWWWW +0.21 -0.27 99% 1.4
2 Placer United 6420 195+14 142.33 DDWWW -0.40 +0.09 91% 2.5
3 River Islands Surf 7421 158+7 142.00 DWLWW -0.37 +0.23 38% 5.6
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 175+12 131.86 LDWWW -0.25 -0.00 75% 3.7
5 1974 Newark FC 5302 1012-2 91.80 LWWLW -0.04 +0.07 4% 10.0
6 MVLA 6312 1414+0 101.67 LWDWL +0.05 -0.05 9% 8.6
7 Santa Clara Sporting 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.28 -0.14 20% 7.3
8 El Camino FC Salinas 7322 1512+3 111.57 DLDWW +0.40 -0.39 31% 6.0
9 Davis Legacy 6231 129+3 91.50 WLDDW +0.24 -0.20 20% 6.9
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 7313 1312+1 101.43 DLWLL +0.01 +0.05 3% 9.9
11 Marin FC 6222 1311+2 81.33 LDWLW -0.23 +0.07 4% 9.7
12 Napa United 7304 2016+4 91.29 WWWLL -0.21 +0.08 5% 9.4
13 Mustang Soccer 7223 1412+2 81.14 WLLWL -0.14 +0.06 1% 11.0
14 COSC 7214 617-11 71.00 LLLLW +0.18 -0.02 0% 14.3
15 Association FC B09/10 7205 812-4 60.86 LWLLL -0.14 +0.18 0% 13.8
16 San Juan SC 5005 521-16 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.08 0% 16.1
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 433-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.25 +0.15 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.