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San Francisco Elite Academy

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU17 · 17 teams · San Francisco Elite Academy (all teams)

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10th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
+1 goal diff · 13–12
DLWLLlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0
+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM

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San Francisco Elite Academy
10th · 1.43 PPG
at
Santa Clara Sporting
7th · 1.60 PPG

Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.08 expected points)

Season so farSan Francisco Elite AcademySanta Clara Sporting
Position10th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-32-2-1
Points per game1.431.60
Goals for / game1.91.6
Goals against / game1.71.2
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L W L DL W D D W
Biggest win4–0 vs Santa Rosa United3–1 vs San Juan SC
Worst loss0–5 vs Napa United0–1 at Folsom Lake Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.02+0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.01+0.28

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs Napa United, 0–1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Davis Legacy sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.43.

    A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Clara Sporting game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Francisco Elite Academy – Santa Clara Sporting) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.38 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.63 PPG		 7th▲ up 3 5th▲ up 5 9th▲ up 1
Draw
1.38 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3
Loss
1.25 PPG		 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
98% below the top 4
10.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.24) 1st (2.38) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.33 (+0.90) 2nd (2.14) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 River Islands Surf 2.00 (+0.57) 4th (1.76) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.43) 3rd (1.95) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 1974 Newark FC 1.80 (+0.37) 10th (1.39) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
6 MVLA 1.67 (+0.24) 8th (1.53) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
7 Santa Clara Sporting 1.60 (+0.17) 7th (1.62) A point next game
8 El Camino FC Salinas 1.57 (+0.14) 5th (1.71) A point next game
9 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.07) 6th (1.64) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link San Francisco Elite Academy to Santa Clara Sporting through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
6 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 2–2 1–2 3–0 1–4 1–1 2–3 1–2 1–0 0–1 4–1 0–1 5–2 2–2 1–1 1–2 3–3 1–3 0–5 1–4 San Francisco Elite… 10th Mustang Soccer 13th 1974 Newark FC 5th El Camino FC Salinas 8th Los Gatos United So… 4th Napa United 12th Marin FC 11th Placer United 2nd Folsom Lake Surf 1st MVLA 6th Santa Clara Sporting 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.08 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 San Juan SC
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
Pollicita Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.44 1.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
10:00 AM		 Placer United
2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +14		 Home
Skyline College		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.78 1.43 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 MVLA
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.23 1.41 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Marin FC
11th · 2-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.17 1.39 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Folsom Lake Surf
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.80 1.35 Upside
Sun Apr 25
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
9th · 2-3-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.02 1.32 Upside
Sun May 2
03:00 PM		 Association FC B09/10
15th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Witter Sports Complex · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.55 1.34 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 COSC
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.12 1.39 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 186+12 162.67 DWWWW +0.21 -0.27 99% 1.4
2 Placer United 6420 195+14 142.33 DDWWW -0.40 +0.09 92% 2.5
3 River Islands Surf 7421 158+7 142.00 DWLWW -0.37 +0.23 37% 5.7
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 175+12 131.86 LDWWW -0.25 -0.00 74% 3.7
5 1974 Newark FC 5302 1012-2 91.80 LWWLW -0.04 +0.07 4% 10.0
6 MVLA 6312 1414+0 101.67 LWDWL +0.05 -0.05 9% 8.5
7 Santa Clara Sporting 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.28 -0.14 22% 7.3
8 El Camino FC Salinas 7322 1512+3 111.57 DLDWW +0.40 -0.39 30% 6.1
9 Davis Legacy 6231 129+3 91.50 WLDDW +0.24 -0.20 21% 6.9
10 San Francisco Elite Academy 7313 1312+1 101.43 DLWLL +0.01 +0.05 3% 10.0
11 Marin FC 6222 1311+2 81.33 LDWLW -0.23 +0.07 5% 9.7
12 Napa United 7304 2016+4 91.29 WWWLL -0.21 +0.08 5% 9.4
13 Mustang Soccer 7223 1412+2 81.14 WLLWL -0.14 +0.06 1% 10.9
14 COSC 7214 617-11 71.00 LLLLW +0.18 -0.02 0% 14.3
15 Association FC B09/10 7205 812-4 60.86 LWLLL -0.14 +0.18 0% 13.8
16 San Juan SC 5005 521-16 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.08 0% 16.1
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 433-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.25 +0.15 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.