Santa Clara Sporting

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · Santa Clara Sporting (all teams)

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1st

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+12 goal diff · 17–5

WDWWWlast 5

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8

-0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Santa Clara Sporting
1st · 2.60 PPG

Association FC B11/12
13th · 1.00 PPG

Alden E. Oliver Sports Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

71% 14% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.6 against · 2.27 expected points)

Season so far	Santa Clara Sporting	Association FC B11/12
Position	1st	13th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	2-1-4
Points per game	2.60	1.00
Goals for / game	3.4	2.0
Goals against / game	1.0	2.3
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	L L L L W
Biggest win	5–0 vs San Juan SC	6–1 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss	—	2–6 vs Mustang Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.44	-0.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.24	+0.16

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Association FC B11/12 have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Alden E. Oliver Sports Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Association FC B11/12 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Clara Sporting – Association FC B11/12) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.17 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

54% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

1.8 average finish

1st 54%
2nd 27%
3rd 12%
4th 4%
5th 2%
6th 1%
7th <1%
8th <1%
9th
10th <1%
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

15 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Santa Clara Sporting to Association FC B11/12 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 10th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Association FC B11/12 13th · 2-1-4 · GD -2	Away far trip Alden E. Oliver Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	3–1	2.27	2.54	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 05:00 PM	San Francisco Elite Academy 14th · 2-1-4 · GD -3	Home Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.46	2.53	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM	Santa Rosa United 17th · 0-0-7 · GD -24	Away far trip Trione Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	5–0	2.90	2.58	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 03:00 PM	River Islands Surf 10th · 2-3-2 · GD +2	Home Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.20	2.54	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM	1974 Newark FC 11th · 2-1-3 · GD -2	Home Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.45	2.53	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM	Napa United 5th · 3-3-1 · GD +6	Away far trip Vintage High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.57	2.44	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Mustang Soccer 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.38	2.35	Upside
Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM	Los Gatos United Soccer Club 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +4	Home Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.33	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM	El Camino FC Salinas 9th · 2-4-1 · GD +5	Home Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.10	2.32	Swing game
Sun May 2 10:00 AM	COSC 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +7	Away far trip Clovis Community College Soccer Field	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.69	2.28	Swing game
Sat May 8 11:00 AM	Davis Legacy 8th · 2-3-1 · GD +0	Home Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.27	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Santa Clara Sporting

+12

2.60

WDWWW

-0.24

-0.01

98%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Marin FC (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	MVLA (16th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Placer United (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B11/12 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Napa United (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun May 2	at	COSC (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang Soccer

+12

2.57

LWWWW

-0.41

+0.19

94%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	6–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Placer United (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun May 2	at	MVLA (16th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat May 8	at	Napa United (5th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

2.57

WWWLW

-0.18

+0.08

87%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Marin FC (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	MVLA (16th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Placer United (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	San Juan SC (12th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Napa United (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

1.86

LDWWW

-0.56

+0.38

17%

7.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	MVLA (16th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Napa United (5th)	0–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	San Juan SC (12th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun May 2	at	Placer United (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Napa United

1.71

LDWDW

-0.48

+0.31

28%

6.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	COSC (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	San Juan SC (12th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Placer United (7th)	1–0	46%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	MVLA (16th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

1.50

WWLLW

+0.52

-0.35

23%

6.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (16th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	Napa United (5th)	0–1	25%
·	Sat May 8	at	Placer United (7th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

1.50

LDDWW

+0.07

-0.09

12%

8.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	MVLA (16th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	COSC (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Aug 23	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B11/12 See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Napa United (5th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

1.50

DWDDW

+0.51

-0.31

21%

6.8

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	3–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	2–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Napa United (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Placer United (7th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	MVLA (16th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Marin FC (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat May 8	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Camino FC Salinas

1.43

LDDWW

-0.16

+0.07

15%

7.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	3–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–3
D	Sun Aug 30	at	MVLA (16th)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Placer United (7th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Napa United (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	COSC (3rd)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat May 8	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

River Islands Surf

1.29

LWDDL

-0.21

+0.18

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Napa United (5th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–2
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 15 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	San Juan SC (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Placer United (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	MVLA (16th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 2	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 8	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

1974 Newark FC

-2

1.17

WLDLL

-0.39

+0.30

12.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Napa United (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Placer United (7th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (12th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Marin FC (6th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 8	vs	MVLA (16th)	1–0	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

-6

1.17

LWDWL

+0.17

-0.06

12.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Marin FC (6th)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	MVLA (16th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Placer United (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	1974 Newark FC (11th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	COSC (3rd)	3–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B11/12 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Napa United (5th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 2	at	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Association FC B11/12

-2

1.00

WLLLL

+0.16

-0.04

11.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	COSC (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Napa United (5th)	2–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Juan SC (12th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Placer United (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	MVLA (16th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Francisco Elite Academy

-3

1.00

WDLLL

+0.02

+0.09

12.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Napa United (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	River Islands Surf (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	5–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Placer United (7th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	MVLA (16th)	1–0	42%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Marin FC (6th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun May 2	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	vs	COSC (3rd)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Folsom Lake Surf

-4

0.67

LWDLL

+0.75

-0.41

11.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	COSC (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Napa United (5th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Placer United (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MVLA (16th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Marin FC (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Davis Legacy (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun May 2	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Juan SC (12th)	2–2	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

-9

0.17

DLLLL

+0.39

-0.15

15.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Placer United (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	San Juan SC (12th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	COSC (3rd)	0–3
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Marin FC (6th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	0–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Napa United (5th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat May 8	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

-24

0.00

LLLLL

+0.16

+0.17

16.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mustang Soccer (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Napa United (5th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	River Islands Surf (10th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	1974 Newark FC (11th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (14th)	1–5
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Association FC B11/12 (13th)	1–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	COSC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	San Juan SC (12th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Placer United (7th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	MVLA (16th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Marin FC (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (15th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun May 2	at	Davis Legacy (8th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 8	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (9th)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.