TableChase Clubs

1974 Newark FC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · 1974 Newark FC (all teams)

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11th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-2 goal diff · 6–8
WLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.8
-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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1974 Newark FC
11th · 1.17 PPG
vs
Mustang Soccer
2nd · 2.57 PPG

Newark Sportsfield Park, SFT #1 11v11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.9 against · 0.71 expected points)

Season so far1974 Newark FCMustang Soccer
Position11th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-1-36-0-1
Points per game1.172.57
Goals for / game1.02.6
Goals against / game1.30.9
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L D L WW W W W L
Biggest win3–1 vs Santa Rosa United5–1 vs Folsom Lake Surf
Worst loss1–3 at San Juan SC1–2 vs Davis Legacy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.36+1.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.39-0.41

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–0; they 1–0. Santa Rosa United — we 3–1; they 2–1. River Islands Surf — we 1–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Mustang Soccer score 2.6/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Placer United, 0–2 vs Napa United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Mustang Soccer have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    River Islands Surf sit 10th on 1.29 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above River Islands Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mustang Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (1974 Newark FC – Mustang Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.43 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
1.14 PPG		 12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 17%
  14. 14th 21%
  15. 15th 20%
  16. 16th 6%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Santa Clara Sporting 2.60 (+1.43) 1st (2.27) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 Mustang Soccer 2.57 (+1.40) 2nd (2.16) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 COSC 2.57 (+1.40) 3rd (2.05) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.69) 7th (1.55) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 Napa United 1.71 (+0.54) 4th (1.63) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Marin FC 1.50 (+0.33) 5th (1.61) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Placer United 1.50 (+0.33) 9th (1.49) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.33) 6th (1.61) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 El Camino FC Salinas 1.43 (+0.26) 8th (1.53) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 River Islands Surf 1.29 (+0.12) 10th (1.31) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link 1974 Newark FC to Mustang Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
12 favour them
-1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 3–1 1–2 1–1 0–2 2–1 0–2 1–1 2–1 5–0 4–1 0–0 2–0 1–5 1974 Newark FC 11th San Francisco Elite… 14th Santa Rosa United 17th River Islands Surf 10th Napa United 5th Davis Legacy 8th Mustang Soccer 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.30 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Mustang Soccer
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +12		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 0–1 0.71 1.10 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Marin FC
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +1		 Away far trip
College of Marin · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 0–1 0.90 1.08 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Monta Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 0–1 0.87 1.05 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
15th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.33 1.08 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.41 1.02 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 2-4-1 · GD +5		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.74 1.00 Upside
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
8th · 2-3-1 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 0–1 0.93 0.99 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 COSC
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–1 0.90 0.99 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Association FC B11/12
13th · 2-1-4 · GD -2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 1.01 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 MVLA
16th · 0-1-5 · GD -9		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–0 1.77 1.06 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Santa Clara Sporting 5410 175+12 132.60 WDWWW -0.24 -0.01 98% 1.8
2 Mustang Soccer 7601 186+12 182.57 LWWWW -0.41 +0.19 94% 2.3
3 COSC 7601 169+7 182.57 WWWLW -0.18 +0.08 87% 3.0
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 128+4 131.86 LDWWW -0.56 +0.38 17% 7.3
5 Napa United 7331 104+6 121.71 LDWDW -0.48 +0.31 28% 6.4
6 Marin FC 6303 98+1 91.50 WWLLW +0.52 -0.35 23% 6.8
7 Placer United 6231 87+1 91.50 LDDWW +0.07 -0.09 12% 8.1
8 Davis Legacy 6231 88+0 91.50 DWDDW +0.51 -0.31 21% 6.8
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7241 1611+5 101.43 LDDWW -0.16 +0.07 15% 7.4
10 River Islands Surf 7232 108+2 91.29 LWDDL -0.21 +0.18 3% 9.9
11 1974 Newark FC 6213 68-2 71.17 WLDLL -0.39 +0.30 0% 12.8
12 San Juan SC 6213 915-6 71.17 LWDWL +0.17 -0.06 0% 12.4
13 Association FC B11/12 7214 1416-2 71.00 WLLLL +0.16 -0.04 1% 11.4
14 San Francisco Elite Academy 7214 710-3 71.00 WDLLL +0.02 +0.09 0% 12.9
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 1014-4 40.67 LWDLL +0.75 -0.41 1% 11.2
16 MVLA 6015 312-9 10.17 DLLLL +0.39 -0.15 0% 15.7
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 529-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.17 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.