TableChase Clubs

San Juan SC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · San Juan Soccer Club (all teams)

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12th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-6 goal diff · 9–15
LWDWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.4
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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San Juan SC
12th · 1.17 PPG
at
Davis Legacy
8th · 1.50 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.2 against · 0.84 expected points)

Season so farSan Juan SCDavis Legacy
Position12th8th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-32-3-1
Points per game1.171.50
Goals for / game1.51.3
Goals against / game2.51.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L W D W LW D D W D
Biggest win3–1 vs 1974 Newark FC2–1 at Mustang Soccer
Worst loss0–5 at Santa Clara Sporting0–2 at River Islands Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.58+0.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17+0.51

Common opponents: COSC — we 3–4; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 at Santa Clara Sporting, 0–3 at Marin FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    1974 Newark FC sit 11th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above 1974 Newark FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Davis Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Juan SC – Davis Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.43 PPG		 9th▲ up 3 8th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 1
Draw
1.14 PPG		 12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 10%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 18%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Santa Clara Sporting 2.60 (+1.43) 1st (2.27) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 Mustang Soccer 2.57 (+1.40) 2nd (2.16) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 COSC 2.57 (+1.40) 3rd (2.05) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.69) 7th (1.55) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 Napa United 1.71 (+0.54) 4th (1.63) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Marin FC 1.50 (+0.33) 5th (1.61) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Placer United 1.50 (+0.33) 9th (1.49) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.33) 6th (1.61) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 El Camino FC Salinas 1.43 (+0.26) 8th (1.53) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 River Islands Surf 1.29 (+0.12) 10th (1.31) A point next game
11 1974 Newark FC 1.17 (+0.00) 14th (1.06) A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link San Juan SC to Davis Legacy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
3 even
7 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–4 0–1 2–1 1–2 1–1 1–1 2–2 3–3 3–1 0–2 1–1 0–3 3–1 1–1 1–0 1–2 0–3 1–1 2–0 0–1 1–2 1–2 San Juan SC 12th COSC 3rd MVLA 16th Placer United 7th 1974 Newark FC 11th Marin FC 6th Los Gatos United So… 4th El Camino FC Salinas 9th Napa United 5th River Islands Surf 10th Mustang Soccer 2nd Davis Legacy 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
8th · 2-3-1 · GD +0		 Away
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.84 1.12 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Association FC B11/12
13th · 2-1-4 · GD -2		 Home
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.30 1.14 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Pollicita Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.23 1.15 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -24		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 1.26 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 River Islands Surf
10th · 2-3-2 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.13 1.25 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Napa United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +6		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 0–1 0.84 1.22 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +12		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.41 1.15 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 1.00 1.14 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 2-4-1 · GD +5		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.61 1.11 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Folsom Lake Surf
15th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.29 1.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Santa Clara Sporting 5410 175+12 132.60 WDWWW -0.24 -0.01 97% 1.8
2 Mustang Soccer 7601 186+12 182.57 LWWWW -0.41 +0.19 94% 2.3
3 COSC 7601 169+7 182.57 WWWLW -0.18 +0.08 85% 3.1
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 128+4 131.86 LDWWW -0.56 +0.38 16% 7.4
5 Napa United 7331 104+6 121.71 LDWDW -0.48 +0.31 27% 6.3
6 Marin FC 6303 98+1 91.50 WWLLW +0.52 -0.35 23% 6.7
7 Placer United 6231 87+1 91.50 LDDWW +0.07 -0.09 11% 8.2
8 Davis Legacy 6231 88+0 91.50 DWDDW +0.51 -0.31 22% 6.8
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7241 1611+5 101.43 LDDWW -0.16 +0.07 18% 7.2
10 River Islands Surf 7232 108+2 91.29 LWDDL -0.21 +0.18 3% 9.9
11 1974 Newark FC 6213 68-2 71.17 WLDLL -0.39 +0.30 0% 12.9
12 San Juan SC 6213 915-6 71.17 LWDWL +0.17 -0.06 0% 12.4
13 Association FC B11/12 7214 1416-2 71.00 WLLLL +0.16 -0.04 1% 11.4
14 San Francisco Elite Academy 7214 710-3 71.00 WDLLL +0.02 +0.09 0% 13.0
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 1014-4 40.67 LWDLL +0.75 -0.41 2% 11.2
16 MVLA 6015 312-9 10.17 DLLLL +0.39 -0.15 0% 15.6
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 529-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.17 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.