TableChase Clubs

Napa United

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · Napa United (all teams)

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5th
3-3-1 record · 7 played
1.71 points per game
+6 goal diff · 10–4
LDWDWlast 5
27% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.3
-0.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Napa United
5th · 1.71 PPG
vs
Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 1.86 PPG

Vintage High School, Football Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 0.9 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so farNapa UnitedLos Gatos United Soccer Club
Position5th4th
Record (W-D-L)3-3-14-1-2
Points per game1.711.86
Goals for / game1.41.7
Goals against / game0.61.1
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W D W D LW W W D L
Biggest win5–0 vs Santa Rosa United4–0 vs Santa Rosa United
Worst loss0–2 vs Association FC B11/121–4 vs Folsom Lake Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.49+0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.48-0.56

Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 1–0; they 1–4. Davis Legacy — we 1–1; they 1–1. Association FC B11/12 — we 0–2; they 2–1. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 0–0; they 2–0. Santa Rosa United — we 5–0; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Association FC B11/12, 0–0 at San Francisco Elite Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 29% / loss 26%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Los Gatos United Soccer Club have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Los Gatos United Soccer Club sit 4th on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.71.

    A point moves us above Los Gatos United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Gatos United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Napa United – Los Gatos United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.88 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Win
1.88 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.63 PPG		 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 4
Loss
1.50 PPG		 5th— holds 7th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
27% top 4
73% below the top 4
6.3 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Santa Clara Sporting 2.60 (+0.89) 1st (2.27) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
2 Mustang Soccer 2.57 (+0.86) 2nd (2.16) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
3 COSC 2.57 (+0.86) 3rd (2.05) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.15) 7th (1.55) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Napa United to Los Gatos United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
3 even
8 favour them
-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–1 5–0 0–4 0–0 0–2 0–2 1–2 1–0 4–1 2–0 3–1 5–1 1–0 1–1 1–1 4–1 1–6 Napa United 5th Davis Legacy 8th Santa Rosa United 17th San Francisco Elite… 14th Association FC B11/… 13th Folsom Lake Surf 15th 1974 Newark FC 11th River Islands Surf 10th Los Gatos United So… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.31 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–0 1.65 1.71 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 2-4-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.38 1.67 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 COSC
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Clovis High School 		●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.29 1.63 Upside
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +12		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.18 1.59 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 San Juan SC
12th · 2-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–0 1.93 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM		 Placer United
7th · 2-3-1 · GD +1		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–0 1.69 1.62 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 MVLA
16th · 0-1-5 · GD -9		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–0 2.05 1.65 Swing game
Sat May 1
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +1		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–0 1.68 1.66 Swing game
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 Mustang Soccer
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +12		 Home
Vintage High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.28 1.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Santa Clara Sporting 5410 175+12 132.60 WDWWW -0.24 -0.01 97% 1.7
2 Mustang Soccer 7601 186+12 182.57 LWWWW -0.41 +0.19 94% 2.3
3 COSC 7601 169+7 182.57 WWWLW -0.18 +0.08 85% 3.0
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 128+4 131.86 LDWWW -0.56 +0.38 16% 7.3
5 Napa United 7331 104+6 121.71 LDWDW -0.48 +0.31 27% 6.3
6 Marin FC 6303 98+1 91.50 WWLLW +0.52 -0.35 25% 6.7
7 Placer United 6231 87+1 91.50 LDDWW +0.07 -0.09 12% 8.2
8 Davis Legacy 6231 88+0 91.50 DWDDW +0.51 -0.31 22% 6.8
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7241 1611+5 101.43 LDDWW -0.16 +0.07 16% 7.3
10 River Islands Surf 7232 108+2 91.29 LWDDL -0.21 +0.18 3% 9.9
11 1974 Newark FC 6213 68-2 71.17 WLDLL -0.39 +0.30 0% 12.9
12 San Juan SC 6213 915-6 71.17 LWDWL +0.17 -0.06 0% 12.4
13 Association FC B11/12 7214 1416-2 71.00 WLLLL +0.16 -0.04 1% 11.3
14 San Francisco Elite Academy 7214 710-3 71.00 WDLLL +0.02 +0.09 0% 13.0
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 1014-4 40.67 LWDLL +0.75 -0.41 1% 11.2
16 MVLA 6015 312-9 10.17 DLLLL +0.39 -0.15 0% 15.7
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 529-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.17 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.