Marin FC

Open the match preview →

Dominican University, Kennelly Field ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 0.7 against · 2.15 expected points)

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 1–2. El Camino FC Salinas — we 3–1; they 1–1. COSC — we 1–2; they 0–3. Santa Clara Sporting — we 1–4; they 0–3. San Juan SC — we 3–0; they 1–2.

• They struggle to score
  MVLA average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Mustang Soccer.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 64% / draw 22% / loss 14%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  MVLA have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Napa United sit 5th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.50.

  A point moves us above Napa United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Marin FC – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 1%
2. 2nd 2%
3. 3rd 7%
4. 4th 15%
5. 5th 14%
6. 6th 14%
7. 7th 13%
8. 8th 10%
9. 9th 8%
10. 10th 6%
11. 11th 5%
12. 12th 3%
13. 13th 2%
14. 14th 1%
15. 15th <1%
16. 16th <1%
17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).