TableChase Clubs

El Camino FC Salinas

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · El Camino FC Salinas (all teams)

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9th
2-4-1 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
+5 goal diff · 16–11
LDDWWlast 5
16% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 1.43 PPG
at
River Islands Surf
10th · 1.29 PPG

River Islands Sports Park, FIeld 1 (11v11) ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.5 against · 1.48 expected points)

Season so farEl Camino FC SalinasRiver Islands Surf
Position9th10th
Record (W-D-L)2-4-12-3-2
Points per game1.431.29
Goals for / game2.31.4
Goals against / game1.61.1
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W D D LL D D W L
Biggest win4–0 at San Francisco Elite Academy4–1 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss1–3 vs Marin FC0–2 at Mustang Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.53+0.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16-0.21

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 3–3; they 2–0. Association FC B11/12 — we 3–0; they 1–1. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 4–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 42%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at River Islands Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Davis Legacy sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.43.

    A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the River Islands Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (El Camino FC Salinas – River Islands Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.38 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.63 PPG		 6th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
1.25 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
16% top 4
84% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Santa Clara Sporting 2.60 (+1.17) 1st (2.27) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Mustang Soccer 2.57 (+1.14) 2nd (2.16) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 COSC 2.57 (+1.14) 3rd (2.05) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.43) 7th (1.55) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
5 Napa United 1.71 (+0.28) 4th (1.63) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 Marin FC 1.50 (+0.07) 5th (1.61) A point next game
7 Placer United 1.50 (+0.07) 9th (1.49) A point next game
8 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.07) 6th (1.61) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link El Camino FC Salinas to River Islands Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 0–2 3–0 1–1 4–0 2–1 1–1 1–1 2–6 2–0 2–2 0–1 1–3 0–1 2–2 1–0 1–1 1–5 0–1 2–1 0–0 El Camino FC Salinas 9th Davis Legacy 8th Association FC B11/… 13th San Francisco Elite… 14th Folsom Lake Surf 15th Marin FC 6th Placer United 7th Napa United 5th Mustang Soccer 2nd 1974 Newark FC 11th River Islands Surf 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 9th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 River Islands Surf
10th · 2-3-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 1–1 1.48 1.44 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM		 Napa United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +6		 Home
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.36 1.43 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Mustang Soccer
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +12		 Home
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.15 1.40 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Home
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.63 1.42 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.06 1.47 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 COSC
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Clovis High School 		●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.15 1.45 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.73 1.40 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 San Juan SC
12th · 2-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.24 1.45 Swing game
Sat May 8
12:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -24		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.72 1.53 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Santa Clara Sporting 5410 175+12 132.60 WDWWW -0.24 -0.01 98% 1.7
2 Mustang Soccer 7601 186+12 182.57 LWWWW -0.41 +0.19 95% 2.3
3 COSC 7601 169+7 182.57 WWWLW -0.18 +0.08 86% 3.0
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 128+4 131.86 LDWWW -0.56 +0.38 17% 7.4
5 Napa United 7331 104+6 121.71 LDWDW -0.48 +0.31 25% 6.4
6 Marin FC 6303 98+1 91.50 WWLLW +0.52 -0.35 23% 6.7
7 Placer United 6231 87+1 91.50 LDDWW +0.07 -0.09 11% 8.1
8 Davis Legacy 6231 88+0 91.50 DWDDW +0.51 -0.31 23% 6.8
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7241 1611+5 101.43 LDDWW -0.16 +0.07 16% 7.2
10 River Islands Surf 7232 108+2 91.29 LWDDL -0.21 +0.18 3% 9.9
11 1974 Newark FC 6213 68-2 71.17 WLDLL -0.39 +0.30 0% 13.0
12 San Juan SC 6213 915-6 71.17 LWDWL +0.17 -0.06 1% 12.4
13 Association FC B11/12 7214 1416-2 71.00 WLLLL +0.16 -0.04 1% 11.3
14 San Francisco Elite Academy 7214 710-3 71.00 WDLLL +0.02 +0.09 0% 13.0
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 1014-4 40.67 LWDLL +0.75 -0.41 1% 11.2
16 MVLA 6015 312-9 10.17 DLLLL +0.39 -0.15 0% 15.7
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 529-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.17 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.