TableChase Clubs

River Islands Surf

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU15 · 17 teams · Valley Surf | America (all teams)

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10th
2-3-2 record · 7 played
1.29 points per game
+2 goal diff · 10–8
LWDDLlast 5
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0
-0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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River Islands Surf
10th · 1.29 PPG
vs
El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 1.43 PPG

River Islands Sports Park, FIeld 1 (11v11) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.7 against · 1.29 expected points)

Season so farRiver Islands SurfEl Camino FC Salinas
Position10th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-3-22-4-1
Points per game1.291.43
Goals for / game1.42.3
Goals against / game1.11.6
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L D D W LW W D D L
Biggest win4–1 at Santa Rosa United4–0 at San Francisco Elite Academy
Worst loss0–2 at Mustang Soccer1–3 vs Marin FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.09+0.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.21-0.16

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 2–0; they 3–3. Association FC B11/12 — we 1–1; they 3–0. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    El Camino FC Salinas score 2.3/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Mustang Soccer.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    El Camino FC Salinas sit 9th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.29.

    A point moves us above El Camino FC Salinas on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the El Camino FC Salinas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (River Islands Surf – El Camino FC Salinas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.25 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Win
1.50 PPG		 6th▲ up 4 8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1
Draw
1.25 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Loss
1.13 PPG		 12th▼ down 2 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
10.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Santa Clara Sporting 2.60 (+1.31) 1st (2.27) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Mustang Soccer 2.57 (+1.28) 2nd (2.16) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 COSC 2.57 (+1.28) 3rd (2.05) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.86 (+0.57) 7th (1.55) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
5 Napa United 1.71 (+0.42) 4th (1.63) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Marin FC 1.50 (+0.21) 5th (1.61) Win next game
7 Placer United 1.50 (+0.21) 9th (1.49) Win next game
8 Davis Legacy 1.50 (+0.21) 6th (1.61) Win next game
9 El Camino FC Salinas 1.43 (+0.14) 8th (1.53) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link River Islands Surf to El Camino FC Salinas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
11 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 3–3 1–1 0–3 1–2 0–4 1–1 1–1 0–2 1–0 3–1 6–2 1–0 2–2 1–1 0–1 2–2 5–1 1–2 1–0 0–0 River Islands Surf 10th Davis Legacy 8th Association FC B11/… 13th San Francisco Elite… 14th Napa United 5th Mustang Soccer 2nd 1974 Newark FC 11th Marin FC 6th Folsom Lake Surf 15th Placer United 7th El Camino FC Salinas 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
9th · 2-4-1 · GD +5		 Home
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.29 1.29 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 COSC
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +7		 Home
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.20 1.28 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.62 1.21 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 San Juan SC
12th · 2-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.65 1.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Placer United
7th · 2-3-1 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.43 1.27 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 MVLA
16th · 0-1-5 · GD -9		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–0 1.86 1.31 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 Marin FC
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +1		 Home
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.40 1.32 Upside
Sun May 2
12:45 PM		 Folsom Lake Surf
15th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Livermore Community Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 1.32 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.15 1.31 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Santa Clara Sporting 5410 175+12 132.60 WDWWW -0.24 -0.01 98% 1.7
2 Mustang Soccer 7601 186+12 182.57 LWWWW -0.41 +0.19 95% 2.3
3 COSC 7601 169+7 182.57 WWWLW -0.18 +0.08 85% 3.1
4 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7412 128+4 131.86 LDWWW -0.56 +0.38 16% 7.4
5 Napa United 7331 104+6 121.71 LDWDW -0.48 +0.31 28% 6.3
6 Marin FC 6303 98+1 91.50 WWLLW +0.52 -0.35 23% 6.8
7 Placer United 6231 87+1 91.50 LDDWW +0.07 -0.09 13% 8.0
8 Davis Legacy 6231 88+0 91.50 DWDDW +0.51 -0.31 20% 6.9
9 El Camino FC Salinas 7241 1611+5 101.43 LDDWW -0.16 +0.07 16% 7.2
10 River Islands Surf 7232 108+2 91.29 LWDDL -0.21 +0.18 4% 10.0
11 1974 Newark FC 6213 68-2 71.17 WLDLL -0.39 +0.30 0% 12.9
12 San Juan SC 6213 915-6 71.17 LWDWL +0.17 -0.06 1% 12.3
13 Association FC B11/12 7214 1416-2 71.00 WLLLL +0.16 -0.04 2% 11.3
14 San Francisco Elite Academy 7214 710-3 71.00 WDLLL +0.02 +0.09 0% 13.2
15 Folsom Lake Surf 6114 1014-4 40.67 LWDLL +0.75 -0.41 2% 11.1
16 MVLA 6015 312-9 10.17 DLLLL +0.39 -0.15 0% 15.6
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 529-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.16 +0.17 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.