TableChase Clubs

World Class FC Pre- ll

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · World Class FC (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+8 goal diff · 18–10
WLWWWlast 5
65% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8
-0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 2.40 PPG
vs

Orangetown Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.8 against · 1.17 expected points)

Season so farWorld Class FC Pre- llMaryland United FC Pre- II
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)4-0-15-1-0
Points per game2.402.67
Goals for / game3.63.3
Goals against / game2.01.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W L WW D W W W
Biggest win4–0 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll4–0 at Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
Worst loss1–4 at SJEB FC Pre- Black—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.77+1.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.81-0.18

Common opponents: Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre — we 4–1; they 3–0. SJEB FC Pre- Black — we 1–4; they 4–2. Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 4–3; they 4–0. Match Fit Surf Pre- II — we 5–2; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Maryland United FC Pre- II score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 33%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Maryland United FC Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (World Class FC Pre- ll – Maryland United FC Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.17 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
65% top 4
36% below the top 4
3.8 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 19%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 2.67 (+0.27) 1st (2.25) 47 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link World Class FC Pre- ll to Maryland United FC Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 even
8 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–2 1–4 4–1 0–3 4–3 0–4 1–4 2–4 1–3 3–4 1–1 1–1 1–0 1–1 0–6 World Class FC Pre-… 2nd Match Fit Surf Pre-… 11th Delaware Football C… 8th Potomac Soccer Asso… 9th SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd Baltimore Celtic Pr… 4th STA Pre- ll 7th Maryland United FC … 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 2nd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.17 2.20 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.02 2.17 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
Glenelg Country School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.48 2.08 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
04:30 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 2.01 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.69 1.98 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
TBD
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.23 1.91 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 1.94 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.60 1.99 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 1.96 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.12 1.91 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.63 1.95 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 1.97 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.86 1.91 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.83 1.90 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–3 1.32 1.87 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.54 1.86 Swing game
Sat May 22
01:30 PM
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.82 1.86 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 6510 207+13 162.67 WWWDW -0.18 -0.09 98% 1.5
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 5401 1810+8 122.40 WLWWW -0.81 +0.12 65% 3.8
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 6411 159+6 132.17 WWDWL +0.38 -0.22 71% 3.6
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 3201 97+2 62.00 WLW +0.02 -0.04 29% 5.6
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 7412 2216+6 131.86 WLWDW +0.02 -0.09 53% 4.4
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 3111 72+5 41.33 WLD -0.61 +0.02 50% 4.5
7 STA Pre- ll 4112 95+4 41.00 WDLL +0.19 -0.11 32% 5.3
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 4112 812-4 41.00 LLDW +0.46 -0.09 2% 7.9
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 7133 1016-6 60.86 WDDLD +0.20 -0.03 0% 9.3
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 4103 812-4 30.75 LWLL -0.45 +0.17 0% 9.5
11 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6015 525-20 10.17 LLLDL +0.53 +0.04 0% 11.7
12 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 3003 313-10 00.00 LLL +0.24 +0.12 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.