TableChase Clubs

Match Fit Surf Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)

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11th
0-1-5 record · 6 played
0.17 points per game
-20 goal diff · 5–25
LLLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.7
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0.17 PPG
vs
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 1.86 PPG

Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.5 for, 4.2 against · 0.35 expected points)

Season so farMatch Fit Surf Pre- IIPipeline SC Pre ll
Position11th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-54-1-2
Points per game0.171.86
Goals for / game0.83.1
Goals against / game4.22.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L D L L LW D W L W
Biggest win—6–2 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
Worst loss0–6 vs STA Pre- ll2–3 at SJEB FC Pre- Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.02+0.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.02

Common opponents: Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green — we 1–3; they 2–3. STA Pre- ll — we 0–6; they 3–2. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll — we 0–6; they 2–1. Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 1–1; they 4–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Pipeline SC Pre ll score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs STA Pre- ll, 0–6 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pipeline SC Pre ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf Pre- II – Pipeline SC Pre ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.14 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Win
0.57 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.29 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.14 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 25%
  12. 12th 72%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.23 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 2.67 (+2.50) 1st (2.25) 58 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 2.40 (+2.23) 3rd (1.86) 52 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 2.17 (+2.00) 2nd (1.90) 47 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 2.00 (+1.83) 7th (1.61) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 1.86 (+1.69) 4th (1.77) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 1.33 (+1.16) 5th (1.76) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
7 STA Pre- ll 1.00 (+0.83) 6th (1.65) 21 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 1.00 (+0.83) 8th (1.26) 21 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 0.86 (+0.69) 9th (1.01) 18 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 0.75 (+0.58) 10th (0.95) 16 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

17 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Match Fit Surf Pre- II to Pipeline SC Pre ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
3 even
13 favour them
-2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 3–2 1–1 2–4 0–6 1–2 0–6 2–3 2–5 4–1 3–3 1–4 3–0 4–2 3–2 1–1 0–0 4–0 4–3 4–0 2–6 Match Fit Surf Pre-… 11th Baltimore Celtic Pr… 4th Potomac Soccer Asso… 9th Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th STA Pre- ll 7th World Class FC Pre-… 2nd Maryland United FC … 1st Delaware Football C… 8th SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 12th Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 17
01:30 PM
no score posted
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.47 0.21 Upside
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Sycamore Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.35 0.23 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Sycamore Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.37 0.24 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:30 PM
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 0.32 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 0.34 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.31 0.34 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.35 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.26 0.34 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.69 0.37 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.20 0.36 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 0.37 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.36 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–3 0.83 0.39 Upside
Sat May 8
10:00 AM
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–3 0.24 0.38 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.29 0.42 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.23 0.42 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 6510 207+13 162.67 WWWDW -0.18 -0.09 98% 1.5
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 5401 1810+8 122.40 WLWWW -0.81 +0.12 66% 3.8
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 6411 159+6 132.17 WWDWL +0.38 -0.22 72% 3.5
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 3201 97+2 62.00 WLW +0.02 -0.04 27% 5.6
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 7412 2216+6 131.86 WLWDW +0.02 -0.09 52% 4.4
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 3111 72+5 41.33 WLD -0.61 +0.02 49% 4.6
7 STA Pre- ll 4112 95+4 41.00 WDLL +0.19 -0.11 33% 5.2
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 4112 812-4 41.00 LLDW +0.46 -0.09 3% 7.9
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 7133 1016-6 60.86 WDDLD +0.20 -0.03 0% 9.2
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 4103 812-4 30.75 LWLL -0.45 +0.17 0% 9.5
11 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6015 525-20 10.17 LLLDL +0.53 +0.04 0% 11.7
12 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 3003 313-10 00.00 LLL +0.24 +0.12 0% 11.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.