Pipeline SC Pre ll
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Pipeline SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.2 for, 1.5 against · 2.56 expected points)
| Season so far | Pipeline SC Pre ll | Match Fit Surf Pre- II |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-2 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 1.86 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W L W | L D L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–2 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll | — |
| Worst loss | 2–3 at SJEB FC Pre- Black | 0–6 vs STA Pre- ll |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.62 | -2.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.02 | +0.53 |
Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 4–2; they 1–1. Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green — we 2–3; they 1–3. STA Pre- ll — we 3–2; they 0–6. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll — we 2–1; they 0–6.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Match Fit Surf Pre- II average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Match Fit Surf Pre- II concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–6 vs STA Pre- ll.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:30 PM at Sycamore Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.86.A win moves us above Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pipeline SC Pre ll – Match Fit Surf Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.63 PPG |
5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 4%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 3%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 2.67 (+0.81) | 1st (2.25) | 46 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 2 | World Class FC Pre- ll | 2.40 (+0.54) | 3rd (1.86) | 40 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | SJEB FC Pre- Black | 2.17 (+0.31) | 2nd (1.90) | 35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green | 2.00 (+0.14) | 7th (1.61) | Win next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Pipeline SC Pre ll to Match Fit Surf Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 8th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Match Fit Surf Pre- II 11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Sycamore Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.56 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:30 PM |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home Baltimore Polytechnic Institute |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.09 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
World Class FC Pre- ll 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–3 | 1.15 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:30 PM |
PUNSC Pre- ll 10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Home Baltimore Polytechnic Institute |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–2 | 2.26 | 1.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.47 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.60 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 1.88 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
STA Pre- ll 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.16 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Smith Estates |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.05 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- II 11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–3 | 0.79 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
World Class FC Pre- ll 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
3–2 | 1.51 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
PUNSC Pre- ll 10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.95 | 1.77 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | -0.18 | -0.09 | 98% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre ll See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | World Class FC Pre- ll | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.81 | +0.12 | 66% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SJEB FC Pre- Black | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWL | +0.38 | -0.22 | 72% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.02 | -0.04 | 27% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pipeline SC Pre ll | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 13 | 1.86 | WLWDW | +0.02 | -0.09 | 52% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre- ll See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -0.61 | +0.02 | 49% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | STA Pre- ll | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 4 | 1.00 | WDLL | +0.19 | -0.11 | 33% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre- ll See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | +0.46 | -0.09 | 3% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Oct 17 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre- ll See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 | 0.86 | WDDLD | +0.20 | -0.03 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre- ll See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | PUNSC Pre- ll | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.45 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre- ll See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Match Fit Surf Pre- II | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLDL | +0.53 | +0.04 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre ll · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre- Black See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | PSA Monmouth Pre- ll | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.24 | +0.12 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.