TableChase Clubs

Pipeline SC Pre ll

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Pipeline SC (all teams)

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5th
4-1-2 record · 7 played
1.86 points per game
+6 goal diff · 22–16
WLWDWlast 5
52% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 1.86 PPG
at
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0.17 PPG

Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.2 for, 1.5 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so farPipeline SC Pre llMatch Fit Surf Pre- II
Position5th11th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-20-1-5
Points per game1.860.17
Goals for / game3.10.8
Goals against / game2.34.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W D W L WL D L L L
Biggest win6–2 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll—
Worst loss2–3 at SJEB FC Pre- Black0–6 vs STA Pre- ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.62-2.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.02+0.53

Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 4–2; they 1–1. Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green — we 2–3; they 1–3. STA Pre- ll — we 3–2; they 0–6. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll — we 2–1; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Match Fit Surf Pre- II average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Match Fit Surf Pre- II concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–6 vs STA Pre- ll.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Sycamore Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.86.

    A win moves us above Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pipeline SC Pre ll – Match Fit Surf Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.63 PPG
5th— holds 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
52% top 4
48% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 13%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 2.67 (+0.81) 1st (2.25) 46 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 2.40 (+0.54) 3rd (1.86) 40 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 2.17 (+0.31) 2nd (1.90) 35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 2.00 (+0.14) 7th (1.61) Win next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Pipeline SC Pre ll to Match Fit Surf Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
3 even
1 favour them
+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 3–1 4–2 1–1 2–1 6–0 3–2 6–0 3–3 1–4 5–2 0–3 4–1 2–3 2–4 0–0 3–4 0–4 1–1 6–2 0–4 Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th Baltimore Celtic Pr… 4th Potomac Soccer Asso… 9th Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th STA Pre- ll 7th Delaware Football C… 8th SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 12th World Class FC Pre-… 2nd Maryland United FC … 1st Match Fit Surf Pre-… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Away far trip
Sycamore Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.56 1.94 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.09 1.85 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–3 1.15 1.78 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–2 2.26 1.82 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 1.79 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.60 1.86 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.18 1.88 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.75 1.87 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.16 1.83 Upside
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.75 1.82 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.05 1.78 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.73 1.83 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.79 1.78 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
3–2 1.51 1.76 Swing game
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.95 1.77 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 6510 207+13 162.67 WWWDW -0.18 -0.09 98% 1.5
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 5401 1810+8 122.40 WLWWW -0.81 +0.12 66% 3.8
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 6411 159+6 132.17 WWDWL +0.38 -0.22 72% 3.5
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 3201 97+2 62.00 WLW +0.02 -0.04 27% 5.6
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 7412 2216+6 131.86 WLWDW +0.02 -0.09 52% 4.4
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 3111 72+5 41.33 WLD -0.61 +0.02 49% 4.6
7 STA Pre- ll 4112 95+4 41.00 WDLL +0.19 -0.11 33% 5.2
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 4112 812-4 41.00 LLDW +0.46 -0.09 3% 7.9
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 7133 1016-6 60.86 WDDLD +0.20 -0.03 0% 9.2
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 4103 812-4 30.75 LWLL -0.45 +0.17 0% 9.5
11 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6015 525-20 10.17 LLLDL +0.53 +0.04 0% 11.7
12 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 3003 313-10 00.00 LLL +0.24 +0.12 0% 11.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.