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Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Baltimore Celtic Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 31 minutes ago.
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4th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+2 goal diff · 9–7
WLWlast 3
26% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7
+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2.00 PPG
vs

Jemicy School, Field 2 (9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.6 against · 2.02 expected points)

Season so farBaltimore Celtic Pre- GreenPotomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
Position4th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-11-3-3
Points per game2.000.86
Goals for / game3.01.4
Goals against / game2.32.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W L WD L D D W
Biggest win3–1 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- II3–2 vs PUNSC Pre- ll
Worst loss3–4 at Maryland United FC Pre- II0–4 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.29-0.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.02+0.20

Common opponents: Match Fit Surf Pre- II — we 3–1; they 1–1. Maryland United FC Pre- II — we 3–4; they 0–4. Pipeline SC Pre ll — we 3–2; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 62% / draw 17% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    SJEB FC Pre- Black sit 3rd on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above SJEB FC Pre- Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green – Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Win
2.25 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.75 PPG
5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG
5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
26% top 4
74% below the top 4
5.7 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 21%
  7. 7th 23%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 2.67 (+0.67) 1st (2.25) 53 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 2.40 (+0.40) 3rd (1.86) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 2.17 (+0.17) 2nd (1.90) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green to Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–1 3–2 4–2 3–4 4–0 2–3 1–1 2–5 4–3 4–2 2–1 0–0 4–1 0–6 Baltimore Celtic Pr… 4th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 11th Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th Maryland United FC … 1st SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd World Class FC Pre-… 2nd Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th Potomac Soccer Asso… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 7th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6
Home
Jemicy School
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.02 2.01 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:15 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Away far trip
USTC
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.94 1.79 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Glenelg Country School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.35 1.72 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:45 AM
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.03 1.62 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.02 1.55 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:30 PM
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.58 1.55 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
TBD
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–2 1.78 1.57 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.22 1.54 Upside
Sat Dec 19
11:15 AM
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 1.62 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
TBD
PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.10 1.65 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.42 1.71 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 1.66 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.09 1.62 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.32 1.61 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.22 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.73 1.65 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.01 1.61 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.32 1.60 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–2 1.90 1.61 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 6510 207+13 162.67 WWWDW -0.18 -0.09 98% 1.5
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 5401 1810+8 122.40 WLWWW -0.81 +0.12 65% 3.8
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 6411 159+6 132.17 WWDWL +0.38 -0.22 70% 3.6
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 3201 97+2 62.00 WLW +0.02 -0.04 26% 5.7
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 7412 2216+6 131.86 WLWDW +0.02 -0.09 53% 4.4
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 3111 72+5 41.33 WLD -0.61 +0.02 50% 4.4
7 STA Pre- ll 4112 95+4 41.00 WDLL +0.19 -0.11 35% 5.2
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 4112 812-4 41.00 LLDW +0.46 -0.09 2% 7.9
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 7133 1016-6 60.86 WDDLD +0.20 -0.03 0% 9.2
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 4103 812-4 30.75 LWLL -0.45 +0.17 0% 9.4
11 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6015 525-20 10.17 LLLDL +0.53 +0.04 0% 11.7
12 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 3003 313-10 00.00 LLL +0.24 +0.12 0% 11.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.