TableChase Clubs

SJEB FC Pre- Black

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · SJEB FC (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-1 record · 6 played
2.17 points per game
+6 goal diff · 15–9
WWDWLlast 5
71% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6
+0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:15 AM

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SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 2.17 PPG
at
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1.33 PPG

Scott Auto Field, Field 1A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.16 expected points)

Season so farSJEB FC Pre- BlackPenn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
Position3rd6th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-11-1-1
Points per game2.171.33
Goals for / game2.52.3
Goals against / game1.50.7
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L W D W WD L W
Biggest win4–1 vs PUNSC Pre- ll6–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II
Worst loss2–4 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II1–2 at Pipeline SC Pre ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.64+0.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.38-0.61

Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre ll — we 3–2; they 1–2. Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 1–1; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:15 AM at Scott Auto Field.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SJEB FC Pre- Black – Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2
Win
2.29 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2
Loss
1.86 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 3rd— holds 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st
71% top 4
29% below the top 4
3.6 average finish
  1. 1st 9%
  2. 2nd 23%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 2.67 (+0.50) 1st (2.25) 46 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 2.40 (+0.23) 3rd (1.86) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link SJEB FC Pre- Black to Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
3 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–0 3–2 2–1 4–1 5–2 0–6 1–0 6–0 2–3 2–4 2–4 4–0 4–1 2–3 4–3 4–1 1–1 SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd Potomac Soccer Asso… 9th Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th World Class FC Pre-… 2nd STA Pre- ll 7th Maryland United FC … 1st PUNSC Pre- ll 10th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 11th Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 12th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
10:15 AM		 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Scott Auto Field		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.16 2.02 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM		 Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Sycamore Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.08 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
Tuckahoe Farm		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 2.05 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
11:30 AM		 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Lower Tweeds		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 2.02 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.34 1.96 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.27 1.90 Upside
Sun Mar 7
10:00 AM		 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5		 Home
Tuckahoe Farm		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 1.87 Upside
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM		 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10		 Home
Tuckahoe Farm		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.55 1.92 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -4		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.97 1.92 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.48 1.89 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
10:00 AM		 STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4		 Home
Tuckahoe Farm		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.53 1.87 Swing game
Sun May 2
10:30 AM		 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10		 Away far trip
The Ranney School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 3–1 2.34 1.90 Bank it
Sat May 8
10:00 AM		 Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20		 Home
Tuckahoe Farm		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 3–1 2.68 1.94 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
25%		 1–2 0.93 1.89 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.90 1.89 Swing game
Sun May 23
10:00 AM		 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
Tuckahoe Farm		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.07 1.90 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 6510 207+13 162.67 WWWDW -0.18 -0.09 98% 1.5
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 5401 1810+8 122.40 WLWWW -0.81 +0.12 65% 3.8
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 6411 159+6 132.17 WWDWL +0.38 -0.22 71% 3.6
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 3201 97+2 62.00 WLW +0.02 -0.04 27% 5.6
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 7412 2216+6 131.86 WLWDW +0.02 -0.09 51% 4.4
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 3111 72+5 41.33 WLD -0.61 +0.02 51% 4.5
7 STA Pre- ll 4112 95+4 41.00 WDLL +0.19 -0.11 35% 5.3
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 4112 812-4 41.00 LLDW +0.46 -0.09 3% 7.9
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 7133 1016-6 60.86 WDDLD +0.20 -0.03 0% 9.2
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 4103 812-4 30.75 LWLL -0.45 +0.17 0% 9.5
11 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6015 525-20 10.17 LLLDL +0.53 +0.04 0% 11.7
12 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 3003 313-10 00.00 LLL +0.24 +0.12 0% 11.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.