TableChase Clubs

PUNSC Pre- ll

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)

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10th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-4 goal diff · 8–12
LWLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.5
-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM

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PUNSC Pre- ll
10th · 0.75 PPG
vs

Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6B ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.6 against · 0.79 expected points)

Season so farPUNSC Pre- llPenn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
Position10th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-31-1-1
Points per game0.751.33
Goals for / game2.02.3
Goals against / game3.00.7
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L L W LD L W
Biggest win3–1 vs PSA Monmouth Pre- ll6–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II
Worst loss1–4 at SJEB FC Pre- Black1–2 at Pipeline SC Pre ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.68+0.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.45-0.61

Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 2–3; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 20%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll sit 9th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PUNSC Pre- ll – Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Win
1.20 PPG
6th▲ up 4 8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1
Draw
0.80 PPG
10th— holds 8th▲ up 2 11th▼ down 1
Loss
0.60 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 32%
  10. 10th 41%
  11. 11th 10%
  12. 12th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.59 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 2.67 (+1.92) 1st (2.25) 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 2.40 (+1.65) 3rd (1.86) 50 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 2.17 (+1.42) 2nd (1.90) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 2.00 (+1.25) 7th (1.61) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 1.86 (+1.11) 4th (1.77) 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 1.33 (+0.58) 5th (1.76) 27 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 STA Pre- ll 1.00 (+0.25) 6th (1.65) A point next game
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 1.00 (+0.25) 8th (1.26) A point next game
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 0.86 (+0.11) 9th (1.01) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link PUNSC Pre- ll to Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
7 favour them
-2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 0–0 2–4 3–3 2–1 3–1 2–6 1–4 3–2 2–4 1–1 1–1 0–6 PUNSC Pre- ll 10th Potomac Soccer Asso… 9th Delaware Football C… 8th PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 12th SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 11th Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 1st hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:15 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 0.76 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.82 0.77 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.63 0.75 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:30 PM
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Indian Creek
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.36 0.70 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●●●● Very tough
16%
2–3 0.61 0.69 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.29 0.85 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.05 0.87 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
World Class FC Pre- ll
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 0.84 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–3 0.75 0.84 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.75 0.90 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 0.94 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
SJEB FC Pre- Black
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 0.94 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
STA Pre- ll
7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 0.94 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:30 PM
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.06 0.94 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre- II
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 0.92 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll
6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.57 0.90 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- II
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–1 2.01 0.96 Swing game
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
Pipeline SC Pre ll
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●● Very tough
25%
2–3 0.89 0.95 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Maryland United FC Pre- II 6510 207+13 162.67 WWWDW -0.18 -0.09 98% 1.5
2 World Class FC Pre- ll 5401 1810+8 122.40 WLWWW -0.81 +0.12 65% 3.8
3 SJEB FC Pre- Black 6411 159+6 132.17 WWDWL +0.38 -0.22 71% 3.6
4 Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 3201 97+2 62.00 WLW +0.02 -0.04 27% 5.6
5 Pipeline SC Pre ll 7412 2216+6 131.86 WLWDW +0.02 -0.09 51% 4.4
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 3111 72+5 41.33 WLD -0.61 +0.02 51% 4.5
7 STA Pre- ll 4112 95+4 41.00 WDLL +0.19 -0.11 35% 5.3
8 Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 4112 812-4 41.00 LLDW +0.46 -0.09 3% 7.9
9 Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 7133 1016-6 60.86 WDDLD +0.20 -0.03 0% 9.2
10 PUNSC Pre- ll 4103 812-4 30.75 LWLL -0.45 +0.17 0% 9.5
11 Match Fit Surf Pre- II 6015 525-20 10.17 LLLDL +0.53 +0.04 0% 11.7
12 PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 3003 313-10 00.00 LLL +0.24 +0.12 0% 11.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.