PUNSC Pre- ll
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6B ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.6 against · 0.79 expected points)
| Season so far | PUNSC Pre- ll | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L | D L W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs PSA Monmouth Pre- ll | 6–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at SJEB FC Pre- Black | 1–2 at Pipeline SC Pre ll |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.68 | +0.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.45 | -0.61 |
Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll — we 2–3; they 0–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll sit 9th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PUNSC Pre- ll – Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.60 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
6th▲ up 4 | 8th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
10th— holds | 8th▲ up 2 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 32%
- 10th 41%
- 11th 10%
- 12th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.59 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 2.67 (+1.92) | 1st (2.25) | 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 2 | World Class FC Pre- ll | 2.40 (+1.65) | 3rd (1.86) | 50 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 3 | SJEB FC Pre- Black | 2.17 (+1.42) | 2nd (1.90) | 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 4 | Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green | 2.00 (+1.25) | 7th (1.61) | 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 5 | Pipeline SC Pre ll | 1.86 (+1.11) | 4th (1.77) | 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 6 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll | 1.33 (+0.58) | 5th (1.76) | 27 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 7 | STA Pre- ll | 1.00 (+0.25) | 6th (1.65) | A point next game |
| 8 | Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre | 1.00 (+0.25) | 8th (1.26) | A point next game |
| 9 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll | 0.86 (+0.11) | 9th (1.01) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link PUNSC Pre- ll to Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.17 · 1st hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:15 PM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
World Class FC Pre- ll 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.82 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
STA Pre- ll 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Central Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:30 PM |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Indian Creek |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:30 PM |
Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
2–3 | 0.61 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
Match Fit Surf Pre- II 11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.29 | 0.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.05 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
World Class FC Pre- ll 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.75 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre- ll 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–2 | 1.75 | 0.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll 9th · 1-3-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.56 | 0.94 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
SJEB FC Pre- Black 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
STA Pre- ll 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 12:30 PM |
Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Smith Estates |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.06 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre- II 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll 6th · 1-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- II 11th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–1 | 2.01 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
Pipeline SC Pre ll 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.89 | 0.95 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Maryland United FC Pre- II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | -0.18 | -0.09 | 98% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre ll See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | World Class FC Pre- ll | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.81 | +0.12 | 65% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SJEB FC Pre- Black | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWL | +0.38 | -0.22 | 71% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.02 | -0.04 | 27% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pipeline SC Pre ll | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 13 | 1.86 | WLWDW | +0.02 | -0.09 | 51% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre- ll See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -0.61 | +0.02 | 51% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | STA Pre- ll | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 4 | 1.00 | WDLL | +0.19 | -0.11 | 35% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre- ll See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | +0.46 | -0.09 | 3% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sat Oct 17 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre- ll See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre- ll | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 | 0.86 | WDDLD | +0.20 | -0.03 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre- Green · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre- ll See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | PUNSC Pre- ll | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.45 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre- ll See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Match Fit Surf Pre- II | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLDL | +0.53 | +0.04 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Delaware Football Club Sussex Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre ll · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre- Black See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | PSA Monmouth Pre- ll | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.24 | +0.12 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.