PUNSC Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6A ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.8 against · 1.87 expected points)
| Season so far | PUNSC Pre | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-0 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W | L L W L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at SJEB FC Pre Red | 9–1 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I |
| Worst loss | — | 3–5 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.84 | +0.44 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.06 | -0.37 |
Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre — we 3–3; they 3–5. Delaware FC New Castle Pre — we 4–2; they 3–5.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre score 4.5/game — well above the league's 3.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 15% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PUNSC Pre – Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.20 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 4 | 7th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 4%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 24%
- 7th 18%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 2%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
9 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link PUNSC Pre to Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:15 PM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
3–2 | 1.87 | 2.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.93 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Central Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.76 | 2.08 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Indian Creek |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
2–2 | 1.09 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
Match Fit Surf Pre- I 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.98 | 1.95 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
3–2 | 1.67 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 11:00 AM |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–3 | 1.31 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–2 | 1.86 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.25 | 1.81 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–0 | 2.86 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–3 | 1.09 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Delaware FC New Castle Pre 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Smith Estates |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.90 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–3 | 1.49 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- I 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 1.79 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Home Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 1.77 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | +0.06 | +0.01 | 30% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWDW | +0.58 | -0.27 | 74% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 16 | 2.29 | DWWWW | -0.82 | +0.24 | 68% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.53 | +0.07 | 79% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | -0.46 | -0.00 | 66% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | STA Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.72 | +0.20 | 74% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -1.08 | +0.18 | 8% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -1.41 | +0.46 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.68 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.37 | +0.13 | 1% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC Pre Red See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SJEB FC Pre Red | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.36 | +0.02 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Match Fit Surf Pre- I | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 72 | -70 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.26 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sat Nov 14 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.