TableChase Clubs

PUNSC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)

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1st
3-1-0 record · 4 played
2.50 points per game
+6 goal diff · 13–7
WWDWlast 4
30% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM

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PUNSC Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG
vs

Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6A ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.8 against · 1.87 expected points)

Season so farPUNSC PrePenn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
Position1st10th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-01-0-3
Points per game2.500.75
Goals for / game3.34.5
Goals against / game1.83.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W D W WL L W L
Biggest win4–1 at SJEB FC Pre Red9–1 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I
Worst loss—3–5 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.84+0.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06-0.37

Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre — we 3–3; they 3–5. Delaware FC New Castle Pre — we 4–2; they 3–5.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre score 4.5/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 57% / draw 15% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PUNSC Pre – Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.20 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
30% top 4
70% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 24%
  7. 7th 18%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link PUNSC Pre to Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
3 even
2 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 5–3 4–2 5–3 3–4 4–3 8–0 1–9 4–1 0–4 0–6 2–1 0–4 3–3 15–0 PUNSC Pre 1st Potomac Soccer Asso… 3rd Delaware FC New Cas… 5th SJEB FC Pre Red 11th PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th Pipeline SC Pre 2nd Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th Penn Fusion Soccer … 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:15 PM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 2.37 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.93 2.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.76 2.08 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away far trip
Indian Creek
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 1.93 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.09 1.83 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–0 2.98 1.95 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
3–2 1.67 1.92 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.58 1.89 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–3 1.31 1.85 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–2 1.86 1.85 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.25 1.81 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–0 2.86 1.88 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.09 1.83 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.90 1.78 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 1.74 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
3–3 1.49 1.73 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
7–1 2.96 1.79 Bank it
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.40 1.77 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.06 +0.01 30% 5.3
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.58 -0.27 74% 3.3
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 7511 3212+20 162.29 DWWWW -0.82 +0.24 68% 3.6
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.53 +0.07 79% 3.0
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 6321 3113+18 111.83 WDDWL -0.46 -0.00 66% 3.6
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.72 +0.20 74% 3.2
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 3111 147+7 41.33 WLD -1.08 +0.18 8% 6.9
8 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.41 +0.46 0% 8.7
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.68 +0.02 0% 9.3
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.37 +0.13 1% 8.1
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 6006 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +1.36 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.26 +0.35 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.