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Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (all teams)

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10th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
+3 goal diff · 18–15
LWLLlast 4
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7
-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM

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Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 0.75 PPG
at
PUNSC Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG

Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center, Field 6A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.8 for, 3.8 against · 0.98 expected points)

Season so farPenn Fusion Soccer Academy PrePUNSC Pre
Position10th1st
Record (W-D-L)1-0-33-1-0
Points per game0.752.50
Goals for / game4.53.3
Goals against / game3.81.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L W LW D W W
Biggest win9–1 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I4–1 at SJEB FC Pre Red
Worst loss3–5 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.47+0.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.25+0.20

Common opponents: Delaware FC New Castle Pre — we 3–5; they 4–2. Potomac Soccer Association Pre — we 3–5; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:15 PM at Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    PSA Monmouth Pre- l sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above PSA Monmouth Pre- l on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PUNSC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre – PUNSC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Win
1.20 PPG
7th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 3 9th▲ up 1
Draw
0.80 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Loss
0.60 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–3 loss we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
7.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 36%
  8. 8th 25%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.59 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PUNSC Pre 2.50 (+1.75) 6th (1.81) 52 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 Pipeline SC Pre 2.43 (+1.68) 3rd (2.01) 51 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 2.38 (+1.63) 1st (2.14) 50 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
4 Maryland United FC Pre 2.17 (+1.42) 2nd (2.05) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 2.00 (+1.25) 4th (2.00) 41 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
6 STA Pre 1.50 (+0.75) 5th (1.99) 30 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
7 World Class FC Pre 1.20 (+0.45) 8th (1.25) Win next game
8 Baltimore Celtic Pre 1.00 (+0.25) 9th (1.21) A point next game
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 1.00 (+0.25) 10th (1.12) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre to PUNSC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
3 even
5 favour them
-1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–5 3–3 3–5 2–4 3–4 4–0 1–4 4–3 9–1 0–8 6–0 4–0 4–0 1–2 3–3 0–15 Penn Fusion Soccer … 10th Potomac Soccer Asso… 3rd Delaware FC New Cas… 5th Pipeline SC Pre 2nd Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th SJEB FC Pre Red 11th PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th PUNSC Pre 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 7th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:15 PM
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 0.98 0.80 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Home
USTC
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
4–3 1.88 0.98 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-7 · GD -36
Home
Scott Auto Field
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–1 2.87 1.25 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM
World Class FC Pre
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
39%
3–3 1.33 1.26 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Scott Auto Field
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
4–2 2.05 1.35 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
Scott Auto Field
●●●●● Very tough
25%
2–3 0.90 1.30 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Home
Scott Auto Field
●●●●● Very tough
23%
3–5 0.82 1.26 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
8th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
4–3 1.47 1.27 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
TBD
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
2–5 0.51 1.22 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +22
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
3–4 0.92 1.19 Upside
Sun Mar 7
11:30 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-7 · GD -36
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
5–1 2.77 1.30 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
World Class FC Pre
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
4–3 1.73 1.33 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away
●●●●● Very tough
16%
2–3 0.61 1.28 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–3 1.18 1.28 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
3–3 1.34 1.28 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.68 1.30 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +26
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–4 0.82 1.28 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
9–1 2.98 1.36 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.20 -0.05 29% 5.1
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.54 -0.28 67% 3.7
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 8611 3913+26 192.38 WWWWW -0.70 +0.16 86% 2.6
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.58 +0.07 77% 3.2
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 7421 3513+22 142.00 DDWLW -0.90 +0.17 71% 3.5
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.70 +0.17 69% 3.4
7 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.28 +0.40 1% 8.3
8 Baltimore Celtic Pre 4112 1514+1 41.00 WLDL -0.16 +0.15 0% 8.5
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.70 -0.01 0% 9.1
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.25 +0.07 2% 7.7
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 7007 137-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.51 -0.18 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.22 +0.34 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.